基于PMC指数模型的中国航运政策评价

Evaluation on China’s shipping policies based on PMC index model

探索我国航运政策的改进路径,寻求增强我国航运政策有效性的方法,进而为我国交通运输主管部门优化、制定航运政策提供参考依据。基于PMC(policy modeling consistency)指数模型,从交通运输部官方网站中选取2001—2021年的101项航运政策为样本,识别政策文本,并运用文本挖掘方法构建航运政策评价指标体系;从全国性政策和地区性政策中各选取有代表性的9项计算PMC指数,再根据计算结果选取5项绘制PMC曲面图并进行实证分析。结果表明,各项政策的PMC指数均在合理范围内,但在涉及有关政策执行的具体指标上,全国性政策的得分往往比地区性政策的低。在后续政策制定中,全国性政策应加大保障力度,地区性政策应细化政策聚焦对象,以保证政策的实施效果。

The improvement direction of China’s shipping policies is explored to find ways to enhance the effectiveness of China’s shipping policies,and provide reference for China’s transportation authorities to optimize and formulate shipping policies.Based on the PMC(policy modeling consistency)index model,101 shipping policies from the official website of Ministry of Transport from 2001 to 2021 are selected as samples,the policy texts are identified,and the shipping policy evaluation index system is constructed by the text mining method.Nine representative policies are selected from national policies and local policies respectively to calculate the PMC index,and five representative policies are selected according to the calculation results to draw the PMC surface maps and conduct empirical analysis.The results show that,the PMC index of each policy is within a reasonable range,but in terms of specific indices related to policy implementation,the scores of national policies are often lower than those of regional policies.In the future policy formulation,national policies should strengthen the guarantee,and regional policies should refine the policy focus object to ensure the implementation effect of policies.