基于APSIM模型的2015—2100年气候变化对中国玉米生产力影响

Effects of climate change on maize productivity in China during 2015 to 2100 based on APSIM model

全球气候变化直接影响作物生产。玉米是中国种植面积最大的粮食作物,系统探究未来气候变化对其生产力的影响对保障玉米高产稳产和粮食安全具有重要意义。为探究未来气候变化对中国玉米生产力影响,该研究基于SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5共2种气候情景(shared socioeconomic pathways,SSP)1981—2100年逐日气象资料以及中国气象局农业气象观测站玉米生育期数据和土壤数据,使用调参验证后的农业生产系统模拟模型(agricultural production systems simulator,APSIM-Maize)解析了气候变化对中国玉米主产区高产性和稳产性的影响。结果表明:(1)未来气候情景下,中国玉米主产区生育期内气温和≥10℃有效积温总体呈增加趋势,SSP5-8.5气候情景下升温幅度高于SSP1-2.6气候情景;降水量年际波动大,变化趋势不显著;太阳总辐射呈先增加后减少趋势。(2)若不采取适应措施,未来气候变化使玉米全生育期、营养生长期和生殖生长期总体呈缩短趋势,且SSP5-8.5情景下缩短幅度大于SSP1-2.6情景,2080 s缩短幅度大于2030 s和2050 s。(3)无适应措施条件下,未来气候变化下研究区域玉米光温潜在产量和雨养潜在产量总体呈下降趋势,SSP5-8.5情景下较SSP1-2.6情景下减产效应更大,2个情景光温潜在产量减产率平均值分别为13.8%和11.9%,雨养潜在产量减产率平均值分别为17.5%和14.0%。玉米潜在产量的稳定性略有提高,但区域间存在差异。因此,未来气候变化使中国玉米生产力总体下降,稳定性略有提高。研究为未来玉米高产稳产和中国玉米种植区划提供理论依据。

Global climate change has posed direct challenges to crop production.Among them,maize can be one of the most widely cultivated crops in China.It was important to systematically explore the impacts of future climate change on the potential yield,in order to ensure a high and stable yield and food security.In this research,a systematic investigation was implemented to explore the effects of future climate change on maize productivity using the daily meteorological data of two climate scenarios(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5)output from MPI-ESM1.2-HR model under the Inter Statistical Impact Model Intercomparison Project from 1981 to 2100,the maize phenology data,and the soil data of the agrometeorological stations of the China Meteorological Administration.Firstly,the changes in agricultural resources were analyzed during the maize growth period in five subregions of the potential maize planting areas.Then,the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM-Maize)was validated to simulate the length of the whole growth period,vegetative period,reproductive period,potential yield,and rainfed potential yield of maize from 1981 to 2100.And the average value and coefficient of variation were selected to quantify the impact of future climate change on the yield of maize in China.The result showed that:(1)Under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,there was a rising trend in the temperature and≥10℃ effective accumulated temperature(EAT)during the whole growth period of maize.The rising amplitude was higher under SSP5-8.5 than that under SSP1-2.6.There was a large interannual fluctuation of precipitation,indicating an insignificant overall change trend.There was a slight increase under SSP1-2.6,but a decrease under SSP5-8.5.The total solar radiation increased first and then decreased.(2)Without adaptation measures,the whole growth period,vegetative period and reproductive period of maize were shortened under climate change.The shortening trend under the SSP5-8.5 scenario was greater than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.The shortening trend increased significantly,as time went on.(3)Without adaptation measures,future climate change reduced the potential yield and rain-fed potential yield of maize.The yield reduction rates under the SSP5-8.5 scenario were greater than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.The average yield reduction rates of potential yield under SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios were 13.8%and 11.9%,respectively,while the average yield reduction rates of rain-fed potential yield were 17.5%and 14.0%,respectively.Future climate change slightly improved the stability of the potential yield and the rain-fed potential yield of maize,but there were differences between subregions.Therefore,future climate change can be expected to decrease the productivity of maize,but slightly improve its stability.