郑州都市圈新型城镇化、生态环境、碳排放耦合协调分析

Coupled coordinated analysis of new urbanization,ecological environment,carbon emission in Zhengzhou metropolitan area

【目的】分析新型城镇化、生态环境、碳排放耦合协调规律及时空演变特征,为郑州都市圈绿色快速发展提供建议。【方法】以郑州都市圈为研究区域,基于新型城镇化、生态环境、碳排放耦合机制构建评价指标体系,测算2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年新型城镇化指数、生态环境指数和碳排放指数及其三元耦合协调度分析,并从时空角度分析其演变特征。【结果】1)郑州都市圈新型城镇化水平是以郑州为中心,西北部发展水平较高,东南部发展水平较低。郑州都市圈新型城镇化指数由0.089上升到0.478。增长速率最快的是科技支出和教育支出。2)郑州都市圈生态环境指数由0.559上升至0.769,生态指数呈现波动增长状态。3)从碳排放量来看,2005—2020年郑州都市圈碳排放总量呈下降态势,由198亿t下降至27亿t。郑州都市圈碳排放指数由0.552上升至0.949。4)郑州都市圈新型城镇化、生态环境、碳排放三元耦合协调度由2005年的0.523上升至2020年的0.631,总体呈现波动增长状态。协调发展阶段由失调—协调的演进态势。郑州都市圈三元耦合关系呈东西部高,南北部较低的分布状态。【结论】郑州都市圈发展还未实现由失调向协调的跨越,且区域发展差异较大,不同区域需要根据自身情况,制定适合自身发展的科学政策。

【Objective】The objective of this paper is to analyze the coupling and coordination law of new urbanization,ecological environment,carbon emission and the characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution,and to provide suggestions for the green and rapid development of Zhengzhou metropolitan area.【Method】Taking Zhengzhou metropolitan area as the research area,an evaluation index system was constructed based on the coupling mechanism of new urbanization-ecological environment-carbon emissions,the new urbanization index,ecological environment index and carbon emission index and their ternary coupling coordination degree analysis in 2005,2010,2015 and 2020 were calculated,and their evolution characteristics were analyzed from the perspective of time and space.【Result】1)The level of new-type urbanization in Zhengzhou metropolitan area is centered on Zhengzhou,with a high level of development in the northwest and a low level of development in the southeast.The new urbanization index of Zhengzhou metropolitan area increased from 0.089 to 0.478.The fastest growth is in science and technology spending and education spending.2)The ecological environment index of Zhengzhou metropolitan area increased from 0.559 to 0.769,showing a fluctuating growth state.3)From the perspective of carbon emissions,the total carbon emissions of Zhengzhou metropolitan area showed a downward trend during 2005 to 2020,from 19.8 billion tons to 2.7 billion tons.The carbon emission index of Zhengzhou metropolitan area increased from 0.552 to 0.949.4)The three-way coupling coordination degree of new urbanization,ecological environment,carbon emission in the Zhengzhou metropolitan area increased from 0.523 in 2005 to 0.631 in 2020,showing a fluctuating growth state overall.The stage of coordinated development is an evolutionary trend from imbalance to coordination.The ternary coupling relationship of Zhengzhou metropolitan area is high in the east and west,and low in the south and north.【Conclusion】The development of Zhengzhou metropolitan area has not achieved the leap from imbalance to coordination.Different regions need to formulate scientific policies for their own development.