非洲猪瘟疫情对中国省际生猪产业的影响分析

Analysis on the impact of African swine fever epidemic on China’s inter-provincial pig industry

【目的】通过识别非洲猪瘟疫情下各省间产业损失的联系,不断完善生猪疾病防控体系,是实现生猪产业可持续发展长效机制的“良药”。【方法】利用多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,从生产侧、消费侧角度测算非洲猪瘟疫情对生猪产业造成的经济损失,并分析各省生猪产量减少对外省生猪产业造成的损失。【结果】(1)生猪生产侧损失远高于消费侧损失,非洲猪瘟疫情对河南、辽宁、黑龙江、湖北、云南、山东、江苏影响较大,对新疆、西藏、甘肃、宁夏、青海影响较少。(2)猪肉产品从生产到销售具有跨区域性,生猪产业较为发达的省份易受外省生猪产品减少的影响,天津、上海、宁夏、重庆、北京、山东等生猪产业对外省加工制造类产业依赖度较高。【结论】未来的生猪产业损失评估应重视产业链的整合和延伸,产业防控政策重心应逐渐从恢复生产向优化产业结构过渡;动物疫病防控还应考虑动物疫病对生猪产业链协同性的影响,加强产业结构优化。

【Objective】Identifying the link of industrial losses among provinces under the African swine fever epidemic,so as to improve the pig disease prevention and control system,is a“good medicine”to realize the long-term mechanism of sustainable development of the pig industry.【Method】Using the multi-regional input-output(MRIO)model,the economic losses caused by the African swine fever epidemic to the pig industry were estimated from the perspectives of production and consumption sides,and analyze the loss caused by the reduction of pig production in other provinces.【Result】(1)The loss on the production side of live pigs is much higher than the loss on the consumption side.The African swine fever epidemic has a greater impact on Henan,Liaoning,Heilongjiang,Hubei,Yunnan,Shandong,and Jiangsu provinces,and has a smaller impact on Xinjiang,Tibet,Gansu,Ningxia,and Qinghai provinces.(2)The production and sales of pork products are cross-regional.Provinces with a more developed pig industry are easily affected by the reduction of pig products from other provinces.The pig industry in provinces like Tianjin,Shanghai,Ningxia,Chongqing,Beijing,and Shandong is highly dependent on processing and manufacturing industries in other provinces.【Conclusion】In the future,the loss assessment of the pig industry should pay attention to the integration and extension of the industrial chain,and the focus of industrial prevention and control policies should gradually transit from restoring production to optimizing the industrial structure;Animal epidemic prevention and control should also consider the impact of animal epidemics on the synergy of the pig industry chain,and strengthen the optimization of the industrial structure.