产业数字化如何推动贸易网络枢纽地位提升?

How does Industrial Digitalization Promote the Pivot Position in Trade Network

在全球价值链深度调整与重构背景下,利用数字化变革的机遇提升贸易网络的枢纽地位是中国推进产业链、供应链现代化的重要途径。利用经济合作与发展组织(OECD)2005—2015年跨国投入产出表,采用社会网络分析法考察各经济体贸易网络枢纽地位演变的特征事实,进而采用半参数估计、面板门槛等方法实证分析产业数字化对全球贸易网络地位的影响。研究发现:发达经济体的网络枢纽地位大多有所下降,而新兴发展中经济体特别是亚洲经济体网络枢纽地位明显上升。产业数字化有助于贸易网络枢纽地位的提升,但其提升作用会因农业、初级产品制造业、产成品制造业和服务业各自的产业特征和不同的数字渗透程度而存在差异,且随着产业数字化渗透水平的提高呈现出非线性的边际递减效应,而产业数字化渗透可以通过深化全球价值链嵌入、增强出口竞争优势、改善价值链分工位置提升产业枢纽地位。据此提出中国应以数字化打造价值链新生态、构筑竞争新优势、提升抗风险能力和深化国际合作。

Due to the rapid development of global value chain, the global industrial division is increasingly turning to the division of production based on vertical specialization. The value creation of products is no longer completed independently by one country, but is realized jointly by multiple countries through division of labor and cooperation, thus connects the industries of all countries into the global trade network. The centrality in the trade network has increasingly become a comprehensive indicator reflecting the breadth and depth of a country’s trade and the security of the supply chain and has caused widespread concern. However, the research on the structure and impact mechanism of the global trade network in the existing literature is relatively scarce, especially the research on the impact of industrial digitalization on the global trade network in the context of the digital economy. Under the background of deep adjustment and reconstruction of global value chain, exploiting the opportunity of digital transformation to promote the centrality in trade network is an important way for China to advance the modernization of industrial chain and supply chain. Based on the 2005-2015 world input-output table published by OECD, this paper uses the social network analysis method to investigate the characteristic facts of the evolution of the trade network pivot position of various economies, and empirically analyzes the impact of industrial digitalization on the position of the global trade network with semiparametric estimation, panel threshold models, etc. The findings indicate that the pivot position of most developed economies had declined, and the pivot position of emerging developing economies, especially Asian economies, had improved. In the global trade network in 2018, China entered the core circle layer of the network and as the only developing country, has successfully upgraded from a regional hub to a global hub. Industrial digitalization could promote the pivot position of the global trade network, but this promotion effect is heterogeneous due to the industrial characteristics and different digital penetration of agriculture, primary manufacturing, advanced manufacturing and service industries, and presents a nonlinear marginal decreasing effect with the improvement of industrial digital penetration. The penetration of industry digitalization could promote the industrial pivot position by deepening the embedding of the global value chain, enhancing export competitive advantage, and improving the division of labor in the value chain. Compared with the previous literature, this paper expands from the following two aspects: firstly, unlike the previous literature, which studies the structure or influence factors of the global trade network of a single or a few industries, this paper includes most of the industries in the world input-output table, thus the research conclusions have more general significance. Secondly, most scholars pay attention to the role of the global trade network position on other economic variables, while this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of industrial digitalization on the position of the global trade network centrality from the theoretical and empirical perspectives and expands the relevant literature on the impact mechanism of the global trade network. The research in this paper reveals the effect and mechanism of the level of industrial digitalization on the position of the global trade network, analyzes the structural changes of the global trade network, and helps China improve its position in the global trade network under the background of anti-globalization and trade protectionism. Based on the research, this paper proposes policy suggestions that China should build a new ecosystem of the global value chain with open cooperation, a win-win situation by digitalization, and promote China’s industries to build new advantages in international competition, improve the ability to cope with global supply chain risks and promote high-level international exchange and cooperation.