农村数字化、农民创业与乡村产业结构升级——基于省级面板数据的PVAR动态分析

Rural Digitalization,Farmers’Entrepreneurship and the Upgrading of Rural Industrial Structure:Dynamic Analysis of PVAR Based On Chinese Provincial Panel Data

本文基于2011—2020年我国31个省(区、市)的面板数据,通过构建PVAR模型研究农村数字化、农民创业与乡村产业结构升级之间的动态关系及其区域异质性。结果表明:从全国层面看,农村数字化与乡村产业结构升级具有循环累积效应且形成了良性互动,但二者与农民创业之间的协调关系还有待加强;从区域内部来看,东部地区基本实现了3个变量的协调发展;中部地区农民创业对乡村产业结构升级提升的推动力不足;西部地区农村数字化对乡村产业结构升级的促进作用尤为明显,但农民创业活动的增加会抑制乡村产业结构升级和农村数字化。因此,以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴,必须积极推进数字乡村建设,进一步完善农民创业保障制度,推动城乡与区域协调发展。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020,a PVAR model is constructed to analyze the dynamic relationship and regional heterogeneity between rural digitalization,farmers’entrepreneurship and the upgrading of rural industrial structure.The results show that:from the national level,rural digitalization and the upgrading of rural industrial structure have formed the circulating cumulative effect and positive interaction,but the coordination between the two and farmers'entrepreneurship needs to be strengthened.From the regional perspective,the eastern region has basically achieved the coordinated development of the three variables.The driving force of farmers'entrepreneurship to upgrade the rural industrial structure in the central region is insufficient.Rural digitalization in western region can significantly promote the upgrading of rural industrial structure,but the increase of farmers'entrepreneurial activities will inhibit the upgrading of rural industrial structure and rural digitalization.Therefore,to build Chinese modernization in all respects,we must actively promote the construction of digital countryside,further improve the guarantee system for farmers'entrepreneurship,and promote the coordinated development between regions and urban-rural areas.