气候移民预测建模与决策

Research on the Modeling and Decision of Climate Migration Prediction

针对全球变暖导致海平面上涨而引起的气候移民预测和保护问题,利用最小二乘拟合结合灰色预测理论得到海平面高度的预测与人口时间响应方程,为预测某个地区或国家的气候移民需要的迁移时间及产生的规模提供方法与理论依据。同时,利用种群竞争模型分析本地文化与气候移民文化的关系,得到建立气候移民聚集区对保护文化有积极作用的结论。最后,以H地区为例,利用层次分析法制订综合性考虑的移民安置方案。

Aiming at the prediction and protection of climate migration caused by sea level rise caused by global warming,the prediction of sea level height and population time response equation are obtained by using least square fitting and grey prediction theory,which provides a method and theoretical basis for predicting the migration time and scale of climate migration in a region or country.At the same time,the population competition model is used to analyze the relationship between local culture and climate immigration culture,and it is concluded that the establishment of climate migration gathering areas plays a positive role in protecting culture.Finally,taking H area as an example,a comprehensive resettlement plan is formulated by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP).