土地利用多情景模拟与碳排放时空格局演变研究——以桂西南地区为例

Study on the Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and the Evolution of Carbon Emission Temporal and Spatial Patterns—Taking the Southwest Region of Guangxi as an Example

土地利用变化是引起碳排放的主要原因之一,以桂西南地区为例探讨了桂西南地区土地利用碳排放强度及时空特征,并利用PLUS模型预测桂西南地区未来不同情境下土地利用及碳排放总量,分辨了桂西南地区土地利用碳排放特征,为区域低碳土地利用优化提供依据。结果表明:①PLUS模型能较好地模拟出桂西南地区土地利用结构变化,kappa系数为0.78,总体模拟精度达96.72%;②自然发展情景下2030年桂西南地区土地资源利用效果最佳,但无法达到研究区土地利用模式中长期发展的要求;③2010~2020年碳排放量与净碳排放量的变化趋势基本一致,呈上升态势;碳排放量较高的区域主要集中于城市和新增重点项目的区域。

Land use change is one of the main causes of carbon emissions.This paper takes the southwestern region of Guangxi as an example to explore the intensity and spatiotemporal characteristics of land use carbon emissions in the region.The PLUS model is used to predict the total amount of land use and carbon emissions in different scenarios in the future,distinguish the characteristics of land use carbon emissions in the southwestern region,and provide a basis for regional low-carbon land use optimization.The results show that:①The PLUS model can effectively simulate the changes in land use structure in southwestern Guangxi,with a kappa coefficient of 0.78 and an overall simulation accuracy of 96.72%;②Under the natural development scenario,the land resource utilization effect in southwestern Guangxi by 2030 is the best,but it cannot meet the requirements for medium to long-term development of the land use model in the research area;③The trend of carbon emissions and net carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020 is basically consistent,showing an upward trend;Areas with high carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in cities and areas with newly added key projects.