从现代化和全球化到大国竞争优势——各国经济增长路径的理论建构与当代中国的发展历程

From Modernization and Globalization to the Competitive Advantage of Great Powers:Theoretical Construction of Economic Growth Paths in Various Countries and the Development Course of Contemporary China

现代化和全球化是近几十年来在解读世界各国经济增长和发展路径方面使用最多的两个概念,但均不足以充分阐释改革开放以来中国经济社会发展的独特历程和未来趋向。流行于冷战时期的经典现代化理论本质上是为美国的全球战略服务的,在第三世界国家曾遭到普遍抵制。自1990年代以来,作为现代化理论变种和替代的全球化思潮盛行于各国知识界,在中国尤其得到经济学界主流学者的响应。但是他们提出的新自由主义和新古典主义方案,同样不足以充分解释中国的发展历程。理解中国的经济增长问题以及与此紧密相连的现代化问题,必须跳出主流经济学的狭隘视角,充分考虑国际地缘政治因素、国内社会政治和文化因素,在宏观的和比较历史的视野下,全方位理解中国在特定历史时期的道路抉择。

Modernization and globalization have been the two most frequently used terms in interpreting the economic growth and development paths of countries around the world in recent decades.However,they are insufficient to fully explain the unique path of China’s economic and social development since the reform and opening-up policy,as well as its future trends.Classic modernization theory,which was popular during the Cold War,was essentially designed to serve the global strategy of the United States and was widely resisted in third-world countries.Since the 1990s,the globalist trend,as a variant and replacement of modernization theory,has once again gained popularity among intellectuals in various countries,and has also received responses from mainstream economists in China.However,the neoliberal and neoclassical solutions they proposed are also insufficient to fully explain China’s development process.To understand China’s economic growth and its closely related modernization issue,we need to break out of the narrow perspective of mainstream economics and fully consider international geopolitical factors,domestic social and cultural factors,and understand China’s historical choices and future trends from a macro-historical and comparative perspective.