高比例新能源电网运行备用容量需求概率动态评估方法

Probabilistic Dynamic Assessment for Operating Reserve Requirements of Power System with High Penetrated Renewables

我国目前采用基于负荷百分比和最大单机容量的运行备用容量配置准则,在高比例新能源接入场景下存在备用容量不足或过于充裕的问题。针对当前调度运行中面临的如何准确评估高比例新能源电网运行备用容量需求的难题,构建了基于非参数核密度估计的运行备用容量需求概率动态评估方法,并提出考虑新能源渗透率和评估时段的置信度动态选择策略,可精确评价复杂多变场景的运行备用需求量,实现对上调备用容量需求和下调备用容量需求的滚动式差异化评估。在此基础上,构建了考虑动态备用容量需求的常规电源开机容量制定策略,在保障运行备用容量充裕的前提下最大程度提升新能源消纳空间。基于某新能源高占比省级电网开展了应用测试,验证了所提方法的有效性。

The current criterion for the configuration of operating reserve capacity is based on the load percentage and maximum single-unit capacity,which can result in insufficient or excessively abundant reserve capacity in cases with a high proportion of renewable energy access.To address the challenge of accurately assessing the reserve capacity demand for high proportions of renewable energy grid operation during current dispatching operations,this study proposes a probabilistic dynamic assessment method for operating reserve requirements based on kernel density estimation.Furthermore,a dynamic confidence selection strategy considering the renewable energy penetration rate and evaluation period is proposed,which can facilitate the rolling differential evaluation of the up-and down-regulation of reserve capacity demand.Based on this proposal,a strategy for formulating conventional power supply startup capacity that considers dynamic reserve capacity demands was developed.This strategy maximizes the space for renewable energy consumption while ensuring sufficient operation reserve capacity.An application test was conducted using a provincial power grid with a high proportion of renewable energy sources,and the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified.