产业链韧性水平测度、区域差异及收敛性研究

Level Measurement, Regional Differences and Convergence Study of the Industrial Chain Resilience

提升产业链韧性水平对于推动高质量发展、加快建设现代化经济体系、维护国家产业安全具有重要指导意义。在科学界定产业链韧性内涵和特征基础上,构建包含产业链基础、产业链抵抗力、产业链恢复力、产业链可持续和产业链引领力5个维度的产业链韧性水平评价指标体系,进一步利用熵权与变异系数综合赋权法、Dagum基尼系数、空间收敛模型对2010—2020年中国30个省份(区、市)产业链韧性水平展开统计监测。结果显示:全国产业链韧性水平呈递增趋势但整体水平偏低,产业链抵抗力和产业链引领力亟需进一步提升;三大区域产业链韧性水平存在显著梯度差异,表现出“东高西低”空间格局;区域差异分析表明,样本期内,全国产业链韧性水平总体差异呈先降后升“U”型特征,差异主要来源于区域间差异;收敛性分析表明,全国及三大区域产业链韧性水平具有绝对β收敛及条件β收敛特征,即充分考虑经济社会等系列影响因素后,产业链韧性水平将随着时间推移收敛至同一稳态水平。本文科学测度了我国产业链韧性水平,为增强我国产业链韧性和安全稳定提供参考。

Improving the level of the industrial chain resilience bears substantial guiding implications in promoting high-quality development,accelerating the construction of a modern economic system,and upholding national industrial security.Drawing on a scientific definition of the connotation and characteristics of the industrial chain resilience,a comprehensive evaluation index system for the level of that is established,including the foundation of the industrial chain,the recovering ability of the industrial chain,the sustainability of the industrial chain,and the leadership of the industrial chain.The comprehensive assessment of the level of China's industrial chain resilience across 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)from 2010 to 2020 is being undertaken through the application of sophisticated methodologies,including comprehensive weighting method of entropy weight and coefficient of variation,Dagum Gini coefficient,and spatial convergence model.The results show as follows:Initially,it must be acknowledged that the level of China's industrial chain resilience is increasing but the overall level is low.Thus,both the resistance and the leading force of the industrial chain need to be further improved.Secondly,there are significant layer differences in the level of the three regional industrial chains resilience,evincing a spatial pattern that the west is lower than the east.Moreover,a deep analysis of regional difference evinces that over the course of the sample period,the overall difference in the level of China's industrial chain resilience exhibited a discernible“U”trend,initially declining before subsequently ascending.And the difference,in this regard,was primarily attributable to regional disparities.At last,convergence analysis shows that the level of China's industrial chain resilience,as well as that of three regional counterparts,exhibits the characteristics of absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence.That is,after fully considering a series of influencing factors on the economy and society,the level of the industrial chain resilience will converge to the same steady-state level over time.This study endeavors to scientifically measure the level of China's industrial chain resilience,and thereby provides a reference for enhancing the resilience and security stability in China's industrial chain.