农地确权、要素配置与种植结构:“非粮化”抑或“趋粮化”

Farmland and Confirmation Registration,Factor Allocation and Planting Structure:“Non-Grain Production”or“Grain Production Trend”?

完善农地产权保护是我国农业农村发展的重要保障。农地“非粮化”问题日益被学界关注,但较少有研究分析农地确权对农地种植结构的影响。基于中山大学公布的中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)2016年数据,采用IV-2SLS模型以及中介效应模型,实证分析农地确权对农地种植结构的影响及作用机制。研究表明:(1)农地确权总体上会正向显著影响农户粮食作物种植。(2)农地确权通过影响农业生产要素配置,进一步影响农地种植结构,农地流转、家庭劳动力配置在影响机制中发挥了部分中介效应,农业资本投入为遮掩效应。农地流转、家庭劳动力投入正向影响农地粮食作物种植比例,农业资本投入负向影响粮食作物种植比例。(3)农地确权对农地种植结构影响存在显著的异质性差异,对未发生过农地调整的村庄农户粮食作物种植行为影响更显著。因此,农地确权会诱导农地种植“趋粮化”,而不会带来“非粮化”问题。完善农地流转市场、适当鼓励外出劳动力返乡,将有助于抑制“非粮化”问题,保障国家粮食安全。保持农村土地政策稳定性,避免频繁的耕地调整,可以有效保障农地确权政策效应的发挥。

Improving the protection of agricultural land property rights is an important guaran⁃tee for China’s agricultural and rural development.However,while the problem of“non-grain in⁃dustrialization”of agricultural land receives increasing attention from the academic circle,it is rare to study and analyze the influence of agricultural land ownership confirmation on the farmland planting structure.Based on the 2016 data of China Labor Dynamic Survey(CLDS)released by Sun Yat-sen University,the IV-2SLS model and the intermediary effect model are used to empiri⁃cally analyze the influence of farmland right confirmation and the mechanism of action on farmland planting structure.The study shows:(1)The ownership of agricultural land will significantly affect farmers’grain crop planting.(2)By affecting the allocation of agricultural production factors and determining the right of agricultural land,it further affects agricultural land planting structure.The transfer of agricultural land and family labor allocation play some intermediary effect in the influ⁃ence mechanism,and agricultural capital investment play a cover-up effect.The transfer of agri⁃cultural land and household labor input positively affect the proportion of agricultural land grain crops planting,and agricultural capital investment negatively affects the proportion of grain crop planting.(3)There are significant heterogeneity differences in the influence of agricultural land ownership confirmation on the farmland planting structure,especially on the grain crop planting behavior of village farmers who have not undergone agricultural land adjustment.Therefore,the right of agricultural land will induce the“grain change”of agricultural land planting,but will not bring the“non-grain”problem.Improving the market for agricultural land transfer and appropri⁃ately encouraging migrant workers to return home will help curb the“non-grain consumption”problem and ensure national food security.Maintaining the stability of rural land policy and avoi⁃ding frequent adjustment of cultivated land can effectively guarantee the effect of the policy of ag⁃ricultural land rights.