券商和上市公司同地关联与分析师乐观偏差

The Same-Region Relation between Securities Firms and Listed Companies and the Analyst's Optimistic Bias

本文利用分析师盈余预测的个体数据研究券商与上市公司同地域对分析师盈余预测乐观偏差的影响。研究发现,在北上广等地区之外的相对不发达地区,分析师所属券商与上市公司同一地域会显著降低分析师对该上市公司盈余预测的乐观偏差,这主要是由于同地券商和上市公司之间沟通交流更加便利、合作更加紧密,从而减弱了分析师为获取合作机会和更多信息故意讨好上市公司的动机。进一步研究发现,券商大股东成分不同和上市公司企业性质不同未对这一现象造成显著差异,但一个地区宏观经济环境越差,该现象越明显。

This paper uses the individual data of analyst earnings forecasts to study the impact of the same-region rela-tion between securities firms and listed companies on the optimistic bias of analyst's earnings forecasts.It is found that,in relatively underdeveloped regions outside of Beijing,Shanghai,and Guangzhou,the same-region relation between securities firms and listed companies significantly reduces the analyst's optimistic bias of the earnings forecast of listed company,and it is mainly due to the easier communication and closer cooperation between securities firms and listed companies in the same region,which weakens the analyst's motivation to deliberately please the listed companies in order to obtain co-operation opportunities and more information.The further research shows that the difference in the composition of major shareholders of securities firms and the difference in the nature of listed companies do not cause significant difference in this result,but the worse the macroeconomic environment in a region,the more obvious this result is.