服务业结构高级化与经济稳增长:基于技术创新门槛效应的视角

Structural Upgrading of Service Sector and Stabilizing Growth:From the Perspective of Threshold Effects of Technological Innovation

构建一个服务业结构高级化、技术创新和稳增长的理论分析框架,并基于全球64个国家和地区1975~2021年的面板数据,以技术创新作为门槛变量,从“量”和“质”双重视角考察服务业结构高级化对经济稳增长的影响。研究发现:服务业结构高级化对稳增长的影响呈现“倒U”型非线性特征,这一影响受技术创新制约并具有显著的门槛效应;相较于前沿组、赶超失败组的经济体,服务业结构高级化对人均GDP和TFP的效应在赶超成功组中更突出。鉴于此,尽管我国服务业结构高级化水平总体上尚处在“倒U”曲线拐点值左侧,现阶段依靠服务业结构高级化有助于稳增长,但也要警惕“过度服务化”带来的风险,应在增强技术创新水平的同时平稳推进服务业高级化进程,推动经济实现质的稳步提升和量的合理增长。

This paper establishes a theoretical analysis framework for service structure,technological innovation and stabilizing growth.Using the panel data of 64 countries and regions in the world from 1975 to 2021 and taking technological innovation as the threshold variable,it empirically verifies how the structural upgrading of service sector affects stabilizing growth from the perspectives of quantity and quality.The main conclusions of the paper are as follows:the effect of the structural upgrading of service sector on stabilizing growth presents an inverted U-type curve,which is restricted by technological innovation and has a significant threshold effect.Compared with the frontier and failed transition countries,the promoting effect of the structural upgrading of service sector on stabilizing growth is the largest in the group of successfully overtaking countries.Based on this,although Chinese service structural upgrading is still on the left side of the U-type curve,promoting the structural upgrading of service sector will drive stabilizing growth at present.However,we should also be alert to the risks brought by"excessive servitization".While enhancing the level of technological innovation,we should steadily promote the structural upgrading of service sector,so as to promote the steady quality and quantitative growth of the economy.