供给冲击、最优货币政策规则与宏观经济稳定

Supply Shocks,Optimal Monetary Policy Rules,and Macroeconomic Stability

供给冲击已成为我国经济发展的“三重压力”之一,如何应对冲击、化解压力是亟需解决的重要经济问题。构建TVP-SV-VAR和DSGE模型分析供给冲击影响我国宏观经济稳定的特征事实,运用拓展的最优货币政策规则来应对供给冲击以促进经济平稳发展。结果表明:供给冲击不仅会降低产出水平,加剧产出缺口的波动程度,还会提高通胀率,扩大通胀缺口;拓展的最优货币政策规则是供给冲击下提高产出水平、推动通胀趋于稳态的有效工具,通胀目标的调整是实现产出提高和通胀稳定组合目标最优选择的可行策略。由此表明,引入汇率和审慎两个因素的最优货币政策规则与我国实际有更好的适配度,有利于完善我国“多目标、多工具”的货币政策规则体系,对于促进我国经济稳定发展以及构建“双循环”新发展格局具有重要意义。

Supply shocks have become one of the"triple pressures"of China's economic development,and how to deal with shocks and resolve pressures will be an important economic problem that China urgently needs to solve.By constructing TVP-SV-VAR and DSCE models,the characteristics and facts of supply shocks affecting China's macroeconomic stability are analyzed,and the extended optimal monetary policy rules are used to deal with supply shocks to promote stable economic development.The results show that supply shocks will not only reduce output levels and exacerbate the volatility of output gaps,but also increase the inflation rate and widen the inflation gap.The extended optimal monetary policy rules are an effective tool to increase output levels and promote inflation to a steady state under supply shocks,and the adjustment of inflation target setting is a feasible strategy to achieve the optimal choice for output improvement and inflation stability combination target.This shows that the optimal monetary policy rules that introduce the two factors of exchange rate and prudence have a better degree of adaptability to China's actual situation,which is conducive to improving China's multi-target and multi-tool monetary policy rule system,and is of great significance for promoting the stable development of China's economy and building a new development pattern of dual circulation.