沱沱河流域气候变化对径流的影响

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RUNOFF IN TUOTUO RIVER BASIN

沱沱河作为长江源区的主要径流,以此作为长江源区气候变化对径流的影响具有很强的代表性。本文利用沱沱河气象站1961~2020年气温、降水资料,1998~2020年沱沱河水文站径流量资料,分析了沱沱河地区降水、气温多年变化趋势和对流量的影响。结果表明:沱沱河地区年平均气温、最高和最低气温、累计降水量均呈显著性上升趋势,倾向率分别为0.37℃/10 a、0.24℃/10 a、0.53℃/10 a、11.0 mm/10 a、10.5m^(3)/10 a,最低气温的升温幅度最大,在进入21世纪后的近10 a中升温幅度显著;5~9月降水量占全年平均降水量的92.30%,7月是全年降水量最多月份;7~9月流量占全年均总流量的76.10%,8月是全年流量最大月份;降水量是影响流量的主要因素,气温的变化对流量的影响不是很明显。

As the main runof in the sourcearea of the Yangtze River,the Tuotuo River isa strong representative of the climate change in the sourcearea of the Yangtze River.The ecological status is importantand the research is of great significance.Based on the temperatureand precipitation data of Tuotuohe meteorological station from 1961 to 2020and the runoff data of Tuotuohe hydrological station from 1998 to 2020,this paperanalyzes the multi-year variation trend of precipitationand temperature in Tuotuoheareaand its influence on runoff.The results show that theannualaverage temperature,the highest,the lowestand the cumulative precipitation in the Tuotuo Riverarea showa significant upward trend,and the tendency ratesare 0.37℃/10 a,0.24℃/10 a,0.53℃/10a,11.0 mm/10 a,10.5 mm^(3)/10 a,respectively.The temperature rise of the lowest temperature is the largest,and the temperature rise is significant in the past10yearsafter entering the 21 st century.The precipitation from May to Septemberaccounted for 92.30%of theannualaverage precipitation,and July was the most precipitation month.The flow from July to Septemberaccounted for76.10%of the totalannual flow,andaugust was the largest month of the year.Precipitation is closely related to the change of flow,which is the main factoraffecting the flow.The influence of temperature change on the flow is not obvious.