广东金融集聚的经济增长效应:时空演进与溢出表现

The Economic Growth Effect of Financial Agglomeration:Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Spillover Performance

以2009—2020年广东21个地级市数据为研究样本,运用空间核密度估计方法与空间杜宾模型实证分析省域内金融集聚的时空演进及其经济增长效应的空间溢出表现。结果发现:首先,广东金融集聚呈现“中心—外围”的空间分布结构,无条件核密度估计下该形态相对稳定,空间静态核密度估计表明邻近地区呈相似集聚水平,空间动态核密度估计显示该形态有转变趋势。其次,省域范围内,金融集聚不仅对本地经济增长具有显著促进作用,而且通过溢出效应带动邻近地区经济增长。再次,异质性表明,珠三角中心区域金融集聚的本地增长效应及溢出效应系数均不显著,非珠三角外围区域金融集聚的本地增长效应系数为正却不显著,而溢出效应系数显著为正。最后,金融集聚的空间溢出效应存在显著的地理距离衰减特征,在141.13km以内为溢出效应密集区域,超过该区域溢出系数不再显著。

Taking the data of 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province from 2009 to 2020 as research samples,the spatial kernel density estimation method and spatial Dubin model were used to empirically analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of financial agglomeration and the spatial spillover of economic growth effects within the province.The results show that:(1)the financial agglomeration in Guangdong presents a“center-periphery”spatial distribution structure,which is relatively stable under the unconditional kernel density estimation.The static kernel density estimation shows a similar agglomeration level in the neighboring areas,and the dynamic kernel density estimation shows a trend of change.(2)Within the province,financial agglomeration not only plays a significant role in promoting the local economic growth,but also drives the economic growth of neighboring areas through the spillover effect.(3)Heterogeneity indicates that the local growth effect and spillover effect coefficient of financial agglomeration in the central region of the Pearl River Delta are not significant,while the local growth effect coefficient of financial agglomeration in the non-peripheral region of the Pearl River Delta is positive but not significant,while the spillover effect coefficient is significantly positive.(4)The spatial spillover effect of financial agglomeration has a significant attenuation feature of geographical distance.The area within 141.13km is the intensive area of spillover effect,beyond which the spillover coefficient is no longer significant.