降雨误差微分响应岭估计

Ridge Estimation of Rainfall Error Based on Differential Response

从模型输入降雨出发,考虑到动态系统响应误差修正方法中用最小二乘估计存在共线性以及求解不稳定问题,在微分响应降雨误差估计的基础上,引入用岭估计,提出降雨误差微分响应岭估计方法。通过试算和作图综合确定最优岭系数后进行降雨误差岭估计从而修正流量,并将降雨误差微分响应岭估计分别应用于理想模型和七里街流域进行检验,结果表明:降雨误差微分响应岭估计是一种切实可行的洪水预报误差修正新方法,能提高洪水预报的精度,修正效果明显,值得进一步推广与应用。

From the perspective of the rainfall input of a model,ridge estimation was introduced based on differential response rainfall error estimation,to solve the problems of multicollinearity and instability of least square estimation in runoff error correction based on dynamic system response curve.The optimal ridge coefficient was synthetically determined by trial and construction,then the discharge was corrected by rainfall error estimation.The method was applied in both the ideal case and the Qilijie basin for inspection.The results indicate that:ridge estimation of rainfall error based on differential response is the error correction method of flood forecasting,it could improve the accuracy and stability of flood forecasting which has obvious correction effects,which is worthy of further popularization and application in the future.