中国与东盟贸易的“五通”政策效应的异质性——基于合成控制法的实证分析

The Heterogeneity Analysis of Policy Effects of the"Five Connectivity"of China-ASEAN Trade-Based on the View of Synthetic Control Method

本文采用合成控制法及北京大学全球互联互通中心的“五通指数”,对中国-东盟贸易的“五通”政策效应的异质性进行了实证研究,结果发现:其一,顺畅型“五通”对贸易的促进作用更加显著,良好型和潜力型“五通”的政策效应差异并不显著。其二,“五通”结构性差异的异质性效应主要产生于顺畅型内部,而在其他类型中异质性并不明显。最后,伙伴关系在一定程度上可以弥补贸易伙伴国的国内政治环境对贸易的不利影响。严谨的安慰剂检验和稳健性检验确保了本文分析结果的可信度和可靠性。

Based on the view of synthetic control method and using the"Five Connectivity Index"created by Peking University Global Interconnection Center,the paper conducted an empirical research on the heterogeneity of the"Five Connectivity"policy effect of China-ASEAN trade.The main conclusions are:Firstly,the Smooth Cooperation Type of"Five Connectivity"has more significant promoting effect on trade than the other types do,while the Good Cooperation Type and the Potential for Cooperation type hardly have any significant"Five Connectivity"policy effect.Secondly,the heterogeneity effect of the structural difference of the"Five Connectivity"is mainly generated from the Smooth Cooperation Type,whereas in the other types,the heterogeneity is insignificant.Finally,partnerships can make up for the negative impacts from domestic environment of the trade partner countries on trade to some extent.Rigorous placebo tests and robustness tests ensure the reliability and dependability of the analysis results inthispaper.