中国财政抉择弹性空间估计

Estimating China's Fiscal Discretionary Space

扩大财政可自主抉择空间,提高财政政策应对各种不确定冲击的能力,稳定经济高质量增长,是当今各国面临的共同议题。本文基于Heller(2005)等经典定义,通过构建一个简化经济增长模型,立足中国经济和财政治理实践,估计了中国及其各省(自治区、直辖市)财政可自主抉择空间。结果显示,由于多年持续的积极财政政策,中国的财政可自主抉择空间自2016年就呈现出快速下降趋势,到2022年,已降至6%以下。脆弱的财政可自主抉择空间,使得财政应对外生冲击的能力变得非常有限,如果未来五年全球再次遭遇类似新冠肺炎疫情强度的外生冲击,中国财政可自主抉择空间不到2036年就会被完全耗尽,进入刚性支付危机。虽然在全国层面,中国目前还有一定的财政可自主抉择空间,但在地区层面,如吉林、重庆、湖北等部分地区,即使在2023年之后不再实施进一步减税降费和支出扩张,其财政可自主抉择空间也已趋近于0。防范刚性支付危机在局部地区爆发是中国财政治理应有的底线思维。本文的进一步研究表明,除了转移支付、债务限额管理等激励地方政府突破预算约束实施财政扩张的制度性安排,超目标增长冲动和晋升激励也是侵蚀财政可自主抉择空间的重要因素,面对不确定的内外部冲击,在积极财政政策更加有力的同时始终保持财政有一定可自主抉择空间,除了进一步发展金融市场,更重要的是持续提高支出效率。

In today's world,there is no doubt that countries are faced with common challenges,including expanding the fiscal discretionary space,enhancing the ability of fiscal policy to cope with various uncertain shocks,and stabilizing highquality economic growth.Based on the classical definition of Heller(2005),this paper estimates China's fiscal discretionary space and its provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)by constructing a simplified economic growth model.According to the findings of the study,China's fiscal discretionary space has shown a rapid decline since 2016,falling to below 6%by 2022 as a result of sustained proactive fiscal policy.With such a fragile fiscal discretionary space,China is limited in its ability to respond to exogenous shocks.It is estimated that China's fiscal discretionary space will be completely exhausted in 2036 if the world experiences another exogenous shock from a"gray rhino"event in the next five years.Despite the fact that China currently has some fiscal discretionary space at the national level,the degree to which this space varies greatly across the provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions).Among regions with positive net fiscal contributions,the fiscal discretionary space of Shandong,Fujian,and Tianjin has fallen below 3%in 2022.Specifically,Tianjin's fiscal discretionary space has decreased to around 1%in 2022.In regions with negative net fiscal contributions,even without further tax cuts and expenditure expansions after 2023,Jilin,Chongqing,and Hubei will have little fiscal discretionary space.In addition,it is predicted that by 2030,the fiscal discretionary space of these three provinces will disappear completely,causing a rigid payment crisis.In regions that make positive net fiscal contributions,despite the fact that Beijing,Jiangsu,and Zhejiang have comparatively greater fiscal discretionary space,they are primarily dependent on special transfer payments from the central government and earnings from state property concessions.Similarly,in regions with negative net fiscal contributions,although the fiscal discretionary space is relatively higher in Qinghai,Shanxi,and Inner Mongolia,they are greatly dependent on general transfer payments from the central government to support normal government operation requirements.Due to this fact,despite a degree of fiscal discretionary space currently available,most regions are in a fragile fiscal position.Consequently,preventing rigid payment crises from erupting in localized areas is the bottom line for China's fiscal governance.Further research suggests that the main contributing factor to the persistent narrowing of fiscal discretionary space is the fiscal expansionary impulse of governments at all levels,which rapidly inflates governmental debt in a short period of time,resulting in large interest payment obligations.Local governments have experienced fiscal expansion as a result of some institutional factors,including transfer payments and increasing debt limits.In addition to this,the urge for over-target growth and promotion incentives at all levels of government have also driven the continued fiscal expenditure expansion.It is also possible for governments to expand fiscal discretionary space by improving the efficiency of fiscal expenditure,although this effect is somewhat diminished by the soft budget constraint.While it has been shown in previous studies that financial development contributes to the extension of fiscal discretionary space,this experience has not been observed in China.The possible reason for this is that government borrowing in China is not constrained by the jurisdiction's financial markets.Based on the empirical findings presented in this paper,it can be argued that policies can be formulated in a number of different ways.To ensure the preservation and expansion of fiscal discretionary space,along with the mitigation of any fiscal risks,the Chinese government must focus on enhancing the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policy,particularly with regards to the efficiency of fiscal expenditure.Additionally,for the facilitation of an intensification of proactive fiscal policy,it is imperative to optimize the maturity structure of government debt and advance reforms on the capital market.Apart from this,the importance of continuing to promote reforms in the authorities and expenditure responsibilities of all levels of government should not be overlooked.