房地产税的宏观经济效应与分配效应研究

Research on the Macroeconomic Effects and Distributional Effects of Real Estate Tax Reform

本文在一个引入房地产和居民抵押贷款约束的异质性个体世代交替模型中,加入消费税、资本所得税和劳动所得税以匹配中国的现实税制结构,并依据中国数据对模型参数进行了校准。在此基础上引入房地产税,研究房地产税的税率和免征额调整以及从消费税向房地产税的税制结构转换对宏观经济、收入和财富分配的影响。本文的主要研究结论如下:第一,普遍征收房地产税对消费同时存在收入效应和替代效应,最终影响要看两种效应的相对强弱;总产出则随着房地产税率的提高呈倒U型变化,而房地产和总财富分配差距则随着房地产税率的提高而扩大。第二,合理的免征额设置是实现房地产税改善收入和财富分配功能的关键。第三,在合理设置免征额基础上,实行税制结构转换可以更好地发挥房地产税改善收入分配的作用,同时也可以进一步促进消费。本文实现了在统一的理论框架内,同时研究房地产税的宏观经济与分配效应,有效解决了基于微观调查数据的静态模拟所存在的动态不一致问题,为房地产税改革可能产生的影响和税制设计提供了政策参考。

In recent years,the reform of the real estate tax has attracted a high degree of attention from all sectors of Chinese society.This is not only because the reform of the real estate tax will affect real estate investment and residents'consumption and savings behavior,and thus affect social resource allocation and total output,but also because the real estate tax will also affect income and wealth distribution.The degree of inequality in the distribution of real estate wealth in Chinese households has reached a high level and has a tendency to further increase.The degree of inequality in real estate wealth distribution largely determines the degree of inequality in total wealth distribution among Chinese households.The exacerbation of wealth inequality can increase social rigidity and may lead to a vicious cycle between income and wealth distribution.Currently,China's tax system is still dominated by indirect taxes,which are generally regressive and cannot effectively suppress the mutual reinforcement of income and wealth inequality.As a direct tax,the real estate tax has been given great hope for improving wealth and income distribution.However,real estate investment still has a significant driving effect on China's related industries,in order to ensure the healthy and stable development of the national economy,the real estate tax reform should not have a significant impact on total output and the real estate industry.At the same time,real estate taxes may have a regressive characteristic.Therefore,it is necessary to make a profound study of the macroeconomic and distribution effects that may arise from different real estate tax system designs.Based on the model of lacoviello&Pavan(2013),this article adds consumption taxes,capital gains taxes,labor income taxes to match China's current tax system.Using China's macroeconomic demand structure,tax structure,income and wealth distribution data,the model parameters are calibrated.Then the article introduces real estate tax.The possible innovations of this article mainly include the following aspects.Firstly,studying the macroeconomic and distribution effects of real estate taxes in the framework of a heterogeneous individual overlap-generation model.Secondly,analyzing how economic decisions such as labor input,consumption,and investment of heterogeneous individuals will make corresponding adjustments with changes in real estate tax rates and exemption,thereby forming total output,economic structure,and distribution patterns at the macro level.This effectively solves the problem of dynamic inconsistency in static simulations based on micro-survey data.Lastly,while maintaining a stable overall tax burden,the research studies the macroeconomic and distribution effects of the transition from indirect taxes to direct taxes through the introduction of a real estate tax and a corresponding reduction in consumption taxes.The main conclusions of this research include the following:Firstly,under scenario of universal-levied real estate tax,total output exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with the increase in the real estate tax rate,and the Gini coefficient of disposable income,real estate,and overall wealth increases as the tax rate increases.Secondly,the reasonable design of the real estate tax exemption is an important part for improving the distribution of disposable income,real estate,and overall wealth.Lastly,during the process of tax structure transformation,the ratio of consumption to total output increases as the real estate tax rate increases.The real estate and the income distribution after the adjustment of the consumption tax are also improved.This article provides several policy inspirations for the design of real estate taxes:Firstly,under scenario of universallevied real estate tax,as the tax rate increases,real estate investment tends to decrease.However,a reasonable real estate tax rate setting can promote industrial investment growth,thereby increasing total output.Secondly,universal-levied real estate tax may be difficult to play a role in alleviating income and wealth gaps,and a reasonable real estate tax exemption is the key factor to improving income and wealth distribution through real estate tax reform.Lastly,while maintaining the stable overall tax burden,the imposition of a real estate tax and a shift from real estate taxes to consumption taxes is more conducive to increase in the proportion of consumption and improve income distribution.