货币政策传导的信心渠道研究——基于2012-2022年季度数据的实证分析

On the Confidence Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission——Based on the 2012-2022 Quarterly Data

我国货币政策的有效性关系到宏观经济的稳定运行和国民经济的增长,对其有效性的研究一直广受关注,而行为经济学的兴起也让学界对各类经济主体心理的研究又重视起来。将市场经济主体的心理框定为企业家与银行家的信心,通过实证检验,研究货币政策调整是否会影响经济主体的信心,进而分析其对政策目标变量的影响。可利用传统VAR模型,分别选用M1为货币政策代理变量,CPI与工业增加值为货币政策目标代理变量,企业家信心指数与银行家信心指数为经济主体信心代理变量进行建模。进而通过脉冲响应分析与方差分解分析,研究发现,货币政策的调整确实会借助企业家和银行家信心渠道,对货币政策目标变量产生影响,即货币政策的信心渠道确实存在且较为有效。

The effectiveness of China’s monetary policy is related to the stable operation of the macro-economy and the growth of the national economy.The research on its effectiveness has been widely concerned,and the rise of Behavioral economics has also made the academic community study the psychology of various economic subjects.The psychological framework of market economy entities is defined as the confidence of entrepreneurs and bankers.Through empirical testing,this study investigates whether monetary policy adjustments will affect the confidence of economic entities,and then analyzes its impact on policy target variables.The traditional VAR model can be used to select M1 as the proxy variable of monetary policy,CPI and industrial added value as the proxy variable of monetary policy goals,and the entrepreneur confidence index and banker confidence index as the proxy variable of economic entity confidence.Furthermore,through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis,the study found that the adjustment of monetary policy does indeed leverage the confidence channels of entrepreneurs and bankers to have an impact on the target variables of monetary policy,that is,the confidence channels of monetary policy do exist and are relatively effective.