长江中游城市群城市韧性时空分异及影响因素

Temporal-spatial differentiation and influencing factors of urban resilience in urban agglomerations in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

以长江中游城市群31个城市为研究对象,构建了城市韧性评价指标体系,运用熵权-TOPSIS法测度2008-2018年城市韧性水平,结合标准差椭圆和地理探测器分析了城市韧性的时空演变、重心迁移特征及影响因素,结果表明:长江中游城市群城市韧性总体呈不断上升趋势,且内部韧性差异不断缩小;2008-2013年韧性水平呈现武汉、长沙和南昌“三足鼎立”的空间形态,三大区域核心城市周边均分布连片的中低韧性城市;城市韧性的重心均在城市群地理重心附近小幅变动,分三个阶段,经历了东南-西北-东南方向的迁移过程;影响城市韧性的主要因素是经济实力、财政实力、经济恢复力、外贸依存度、对外联络能力、医疗实力等,不同因子间的交互作用会强化对城市韧性空间分异的作用效果.

Taking 31 cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration as the research objects,an index system for urban resilience evaluation was constructed,and the urban resilience level from 2008 to 2018 was measured by entropy-TOPSIS method,and in combination with standard deviation ellipses and geographical detectors,the spatio-temporal evolution of urban resilience,the characteristics of center of gravity migration and the influencing factors were put under examination.It finds that the urban resilience of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomeration underwent an overall upward trend,with an increasingly narrowing internal resilience difference.From 2008 to 2013,the resilience level took on the″three-legged standing″spatial form in Wuhan,Changsha and Nanchang,and the middle and low resilient cities in the three regions were distributed on the periphery of the core cities;The center of gravity of urban resilience changes slightly near the geographic center of gravity of the urban agglomeration,and the migration process shifting in the southeast-northwest-southeast direction went through three stages;The main factors affecting urban resilience are economic strength,financial strength,economic resilience,degree of foreign trade dependence,external liaison ability,medical strength,etc.The interaction between different factors will reinforce the effect of the spatial differentiation of urban resilience.