基于参考文献出版年图谱的德尔菲法起源与演化研究

Research on the Origin and Evolution of Delphi Method based on the Reference Publication Years Spectroscopy

目的找出对德尔菲法的起源与演化起重要作用的文献,以此阐述德尔菲法的起源演化过程,为其应用提供参考。方法基于参考文献出版年图谱(reference publication years spectroscopy,RPYS)这一探索学科起源的可视化工具,发现对德尔菲法领域的起源和演化起到重要影响的文献,通过对文献分析以得出结论。结果该工具提供的标准RPYS分析较准确地发现与该领域起源相关的8篇经典文献,对德尔菲法领域的起源与发展有借鉴意义。结论德尔菲法的起源与演化与统计、管理、医学等诸多领域相关。

Objective This paper aims to identify the literature that played an important role in the origin and evolution of Delphi method to illustrate the origin and evolution of the method and to provide reference for its application.Methods Based on the Reference Publication Years Spectroscopy(RPYS),a visual tool to explore the origin of the discipline,literatures which had important influence on the origin and evolution of the Delphi method were identified through literature analysis and summarized.Results The standard RPYS analysis relatively accurately found eight classical literatures related to the origin of Delphi method,which had important enlightenment and reference significance to the origin and development of Delphi method.Conclusion The origin and evolution of the Delphi method are related to many fields such as statistics,management and medicine.