2022年采暖季国内天然气供需形势、风险识别及应对策略

Natural Gas Supply-demand Situation,Risk Identification and Coping Strategies for Heating Season of 2022

伴随气温降低,天然气供需市场进入传统旺季。一方面当前国际天然气供应紧张,现货LNG价格高企,国内天然气供需形势及价格引发持续关注;另一方面受疫情及经济下行压力需求减弱,预计今冬明春天然气消费量1800亿方,供需处于紧平衡状态。本文就天然气供需形势气价等着手,探讨今冬明春存在的保供风险,并提出一定的应对策略,为冬季保供提供一定参考。

With the temperature dropping,the natural gas supply and demand market has entered the traditional peak season.Domestic natural gas supply-demand situation and price cause continuous concern.On the one hand,the current international natural gas supply is tight and the spot LNG price is high;on the other hand,due to the epidemic situation and the economic downturn,based on qualitative and quantitative two dimensional analysis,the apparent natural gas consumption this winter and next spring in China is expected to be about 180 billion m3.This paper discusses the natural gas in a tight balance,the risk identification and some coping strategies in this winter and next spring.