拜登政府对冲“一带一路”的新动向、动因及展望

Biden Administration’s Hedge Strategy toward“the Belt and Road Initiative”:New Tendency,Motivation and Outlook

拜登执政后,沿袭了特朗普政府对冲“一带一路”的总体政策,但从具体策略来看,较特朗普政府有所不同。拜登政府不在中国优势领域开展正面竞争,而是更进一步凸显美国现有霸权体系的优势,“非对称性”更趋明显。这种新动向的背后,既体现出美国霸权体系相对衰落时代背景下多重复杂动因,又意味着美国对冲“一带一路”策略的不稳定性和不确定性。拜登政府的对冲策略,可能会对共建“一带一路”造成解构性的负面影响;但在美国霸权日趋下行的情况下,其对冲策略预期与成效仍存疑。

After taking office,the Biden administration follows Trump’s overall direction of hedging the Belt and Road Initiative.But from the perspective of specific tactics,Biden government’s policy shows a different strategic approach.The Biden administration does not fully compete with the Belt and Road Initiative in all areas,but further highlights the advantages of the America’s existing hegemonic system.“Asymmetry”is more obvious.This new movement reflects multiple and complex causes in the era of the fading US hegemonic system,which also means the instability and uncertainty of the United States to hedge the initiative.The new changes in the United States have a certain adverse impact on the Belt and Road Initiative in the long run;however,in the context of the fading US hegemonic system,its expectation and effectiveness of the hedging policy remain suspicious.