摘要
The mesoscale ensemble prediction system based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))has been pre-operational since April 2020 at South China Regional Meteorological Center(SCRMC),which was developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology(GITMM).To better understand the performance of the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)and provide guidance to forecasters,we assess the performance of this system on both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from April to September 2020 in this study through objective verification.Compared with the control(deterministic)forecasts,the ensemble mean of the CMATRAMS(EPS)shows advantages in most non-precipitation variables.In addition,the threat score indicates that the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)obviously improves light and heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of the probability-matched mean.Compared with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts operational ensemble prediction system(ECMWF-EPS),the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)improves the probabilistic forecasts of light rainfall in terms of accuracy,reliability and discrimination,and this system also improves the heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of discrimination.Moreover,two typical heavy rainfall cases in south China during the pre-summer rainy season are investigated to visually demonstrate the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts,and the results of these two cases indicate the differences and advantages(deficiencies)of the two ensemble systems.
作者
时洋
张旭斌
戴光丰
杨兆礼
涂静
陈子通
SHI Yang;ZHANG Xu-bin;DAI Guang-feng;YANG Zhao-li;TU Jing;CHEN Zi-tong(Guangdong Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 510641 China;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction,CMA,Guangzhou 510641 China)
基金
National Key Research and Development Project(2019YFEO110100)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975136)
the Intelligent Gridded Forecasting Team of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GRMCTD202004)
Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2019A1515011118)
Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangzhou(202103000030)
the Innovation and Development Project of the China Meteorological Administration(CXF2021Z009)
the Science and Technology Research Project of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(GMRC2020M06)
the Open Fund of Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction(J202006)。