宏观经济政策、会计信息可比性与分析师预测

Macroeconomic Policy,Accounting Information Comparability and Analyst Forecasts

基于2008-2020年中国A股上市公司数据,分析了会计信息可比性在宏观经济政策紧缩时期对分析师预测行为的影响。研究结果表明:上市公司的会计信息越可比,跟踪该公司的分析师数量越多,分析师对该公司的盈余预测偏差越小,分歧度越低;宏观经济政策紧缩时期,上市公司的会计信息越可比,跟踪该公司的分析师数量越多,分析师对该公司的盈余预测偏差越小,分歧度越低。结论在使用替换变量的稳健性检验后依然成立。丰富了会计信息可比性的经济后果与分析师预测行为影响因素的研究,同时为改善企业信息环境提供了一定的建议。

Based on the data of listed companies in China's A shares from 2008 to 2020,investigate the impact of accounting information comparability on analyst forecasting behavior during the period of macroeconomic policy tightening.The study found that:the more comparable the accounting information of a listed company,the more analysts follow the company,the smaller the error of analysts' earnings forecast and the lower the dispersion;during macroeconomic policy tightening,the more comparable the accounting information of a listed company,the more analysts follow the company,the smaller the error of analysts' earnings forecast and the lower the dispersion.The conclusion is still valid after the robustness test using alternative variables.Expands the research on the economic consequences of accounting information comparability and the influencing factors of analysts' forecast behavior,and highlights the important role of improving the information environment of companies.