同胞数量与个体教育获得--基于公共教育投入的调节作用

Sibling Numberand Education Attainment:A Study Based on Moderation Effect of Education lnvestment

中国生育政策的变化将影响家庭子女数量,进而影响个体教育获得。系统研究同胞数量与个体教育获得的关系可以为优化公共教育投入结构、全面促进教育公平提供参考。文章基于居民收入调查(CHIP)和综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,运用有序Probit、工具变量回归和倾向得分匹配等模型验证了同胞数量会对个体教育获得产生挤占效应,且当个体为女、具有农业户口、父母受教育程度较低、来自中西部地区时,受到的挤占效应更强。进一步分析发现,个体教育层次越高受到的挤占效应越明显,且会影响教育质量和未来工作收入。地区经济发展水平和公共教育投入水平的提高有助于缓解挤占效应,且高等教育投入的调节作用最为明显。

The change of China's birth control policy will affect the number of children in the family,and then affect individual's education attainment.A systematic study of the relationship between individual's number of siblings and education attainment will be referable for optimizing education investment structure and promoting education equality.Using order probit model,instrument variable regression and propensity score matching(PSM)with data from Chinese Household Income Project Survey(CHIP)and Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS),this article demonstrates that increasing number of siblings will have a crowding-out effect on individual's education attainment.Moreover,the crowding-out effect is stronger in the following situations:the individual is female,has rural hukou,has parents with low level of education or comes from central and west regions.Further analysis finds that the crowding out effect is significantly enhanced with the increase of individual educational level and years of education,and will further affect the quality of education as well as personal income.The improvement of regional economic development and education investment will help alleviate the crowding out effect,while the moderation effect of higher education is the most prominent.