不确定性条件下分布式农业生产预警模型构建与应用

Distributed Agricultural Production Warning ModelFormulation and Application under Uncertainties

构建了基于梯形模糊数和分布式作物模拟模型的空间分布式农业生产预警模型来实现作物产量和水分生产力综合警情预警预报。模型采用空间分布式作物产量和水分生产力作为警情指标来计算系统警级,引入梯形模糊数来表征目标产量和水分生产力的不确定性,采用空间分布式作物模拟模型来模拟常规灌溉、0.8倍常规灌溉和0.6倍常规灌溉下的作物产量和水分生产力,进而对现状1976—2012年和未来RCP4.5情景下2026—2045年不同灌溉水平下进行农业生产风险预报预警,并衡量了未来20年产量和水分生产力的静态协调度和每5年4个周期的动态协调度。结果表明,同一作物在不同土壤类型和不同灌溉水平下预警等级不同,警级随着灌溉水平的降低呈现不规则变化规律,协调性随着灌溉水平的降低而减小。模型能够识别出未来气候变化不同节水灌溉水平下的空间异质性作物产量和水分生产力的警级,实现精准化农业生产风险预警预报,有利于实现高效率降警处理。

A trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and distributed crop simulation model was developed based on distributed agricultural production warning model.The model selected spatially-distributed crop yield and water productivity as warning indictors to calculate system’s warning levels.Besides,it introduced trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to express uncertainties of crop yield target and water productivity target.Moreover,the crop yield and water productivity between 1976 to 2021 and between future year 2026 to 2045 under RCP4.5 scenario under normal irrigation,0.8 times and 0.6 times as normal irrigation were simulated based on distributed AquaCrop model.Additionally,the static and dynamic coordinated degrees between crop yield and water productivity for future 20 years were calculated.The results showed that warning level of one crop with different soil types and irrigation levels was different.And warning levels presented irregular changes with decrease of irrigation level while coordinated level lessened with decrease of irrigation level.The model could identify warning levels of spatially-distributed crop yield and water productivity under different irrigation levels and realize the precise warning forecast,which were beneficial to reach reductions of agricultural production risks quickly.