治理维度下城市复杂性系统研究的优化与实践应用

Optimization and Application of the Complex System Research Model from the Perspective of Urban Governance

城市属于典型的复杂性系统,多要素、多层级的子系统及其之间的复杂关系是其特征,这种复杂性为城市决策带来了挑战。本文首先回顾复杂性科学研究的起源、发展及在各个学科领域的应用,对城市复杂性系统进行了解构与剖析,将社会-生态系统(Social-ecological System,SES)的治理框架与系统动力学(System Dynamic,SD)模型相结合,提出了城市复杂性系统模拟的SDES框架。同时,以北京住房复杂性系统为例,采用SDES模型,对租赁住房发展的不同情景进行模拟,并对不同干预情景下的“成本-收益”进行分析,以为住房政策的选择提供决策依据。

Urban complex system has been characterized by the coupled relationships among multiple elements,and multi-dimension sub-systems;however,the application of urban complex system has many shortcomings.This paper begins with the origin,evolution of complex system research,and its application in social science and natural science fields.Then it deconstructs the elements of urban complex system,builds the SDES framework,a complex system framework of urban complex system simulation through linking system dynamic(SD)modelling and social-economic framework(SES).By taking Beijing housing system as a case,this research simulates the different governance scenarios of rental housing development through adopting the complex system.Moreover,it establishes a cost-benefit framework to identify the most cost-effective policies of increasing rental housing provision.