中国省域可再生能源电力消费对碳排放量的时空影响

Research on Temporal and Spatial Impact of China’s Provincial Renewable Energy Consumption on Carbon Emissions

可再生能源电力消费在推动节能减排方面具有强大的动力,是引领清洁低碳发展的新路径。基于此,利用2011—2020年中国30个省份的可再生能源电力消费水平、碳排放量、国民经济发展水平、人口、能源效率、产业结构合理度及化石能源消费量等数据,通过STIRPAT模型,综合考虑横向空间维度及纵向时间维度,就中国省域可再生能源电力消费对碳排放量的影响进行实证分析。研究结果显示:(1)中国各省份的碳排放量呈现出显著的空间溢出效应,并且在空间分布上表现出“高—高”型集聚和“低—低”型集聚的正相关的特点。(2)总体而言,中国可再生能源电力消费对碳排放量具有明显的抑制作用,分区域而言,西部地区的可再生能源电力消费在对碳排放量的影响中占主导作用。(3)能源效率、产业结构合理化对碳排放量有显著的抑制作用,而国民经济发展水平、人口以及化石能源消费则显著增加碳排放量。提出促进区域化利用,完善基础设施建设,解决弃风弃电问题以及寻求供求平衡等政策建议。

Renewable energy consumption is a strong driving force for promoting energy conservation and emission reduction,and is a new path to clean and low-carbon development.Based on this,in this paper,the data of renewable energy consumption level,carbon emissions,national economic development level,population,energy efficiency,rationality of industrial structure and fossil energy consumption in 30 provinces of China from 2011 to 2020 was used to make an empirical analysis on the impact of renewable energy power consumption on carbon emissions in China’s provinces through STIRPAT model,comprehensively considering the horizontal spatial dimension and vertical time dimension.The results are as follows.(1)The carbon emissions of provinces in China show a significant spatial spillover effect,and a positive correlation between“high-high”and“low-low”agglomeration in spatial distribution.(2)In general,China’s renewable energy consumption has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.In terms of sub-regions,renewable energy consumption in western regions plays a leading role in the impact on carbon emissions.(3)Energy efficiency and rationalization of industrial structure significantly inhibit carbon emissions,while the level of national economic development,population and fossil energy consumption significantly increase carbon emissions.In this paper,policy recommendations are proposed to promote regional utilization,improve infrastructure construction,solve the problem of wind and electricity abandonment,and seek a balance between supply and demand.