基于精算模型的养老保险税优政策分析

Analysis of Pension Insurance Tax Premium Policy Based on Actuarial Model

第七次人口普查结果显示我国人口老龄化问题愈加严峻,随之而来的养老问题使得发展第三支柱养老产业成为我国未来几年的重点。通过构建TTE、EET两种模式下养老保险精算模型,采用数值模拟研究新个税背景下不同模式对投保人养老金替换率以及税优现值等影响,旨在探讨两种模式的优劣,为发展第三支柱养老产业提出建议与意见。研究结果表明:EET模式下养老保险更吸引中高收入人群,领取阶段的税率与税收优惠效应成反比,领取阶段税率增大到一定程度TTE模式下养老金替代率将超过EET模式下养老金替代率。

The results of the seventh population census show that the problem of population aging in China is becoming more and more serious,and the subsequent pension problem makes the development of the third pillar pension industry become the focus of our country in the next few years.By constructing the actuarial model of pension insurance under the TTE and EETmodes,the paper studies the influence of different modes on the pension replacement rate and the present value of tax under the background of new individual income tax by using the numerical simulation,aiming to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the two modes,and put forward the suggestions and opinions for the development of the third pillar pension industry.The results show that the pension insurance under the EET mode is more attractive to middle and high income people,and the tax rate at the receiving stage is inversely proportional to the tax preference effect.When the tax rate at the receiving stage increases to a certain extent,the pension replacement rate under the TTE mode will exceed the pension replacement rate under the EET mode.