计及综合能源服务模式的用户侧营销决策支持模型

Customer Side Marketing Decision Support Model by Considering Integrated Energy Service Mode

现有用户侧营销决策支持模型受到营销策略单一性的影响,收益率较低,投资回收期较长,用户成本较高,经济可行性较差,因此提出一种计及综合能源服务模式的用户侧营销决策支持模型。分析用户侧营销环境影响因素,构建营销环境知识库;采用综合能源服务模式,挖掘用户的多维属性数据,建立用户虚拟模型;利用数据包络分析法,获得服务商评价结果;采用ARIMA算法计算能源市场预测结果,提出用户侧营销策略;计算营销策略可信度,从多种策略中选取最优方案作为最终营销决策,完成用户侧营销决策支持模型设计。实例测试结果显示,所设计模型的投资回收期约为7.9年,内部收益率为18.3%,净现值为8500万元,共节省成本1558万元,经济可行性得到极大提升。

The existing user-side marketing decision support model is affected by the simplicity of the marketing strategy,low return rate,long investment payback period,high user cost,and poor economic feasibility,therefore,a user-side marketing decision support model with an integrated energy service model is proposed.We analyze user-side marketing environment influence factors,build a marketing environment knowledge base;adopt comprehensive energy service mode,mine multi-dimensional attribute data,establish user virtual model,use data envelope analysis method,obtain service provider evaluation results.We use ARIMA algorithm,propose user-side marketing strategy,calculate marketing strategy credibility,select the best scheme from various strategies as the final marketing decision,complete the user-side marketing decision support model design.The example test results show that the investment payback period of the design model is about 7.9 years,the internal rate of return is 18.3%,the net present value is 85 million yuan,a total cost savings of 1558 million yuan,the economic feasibility has been greatly improved.