基于季节调整的中国航空客运量预测研究

Research on China's Air Passenger Volume Forecast Based on Seasonal Adjustment

受重大突发事件影响,民航业遭遇巨大冲击,导致航空客运量数据规律变得更加复杂。月度航空客运量序列中季节性因素会影响航空客运量预测的准确性,而随着居民生活逐渐恢复正常,情感因素成为影响居民出行的关键因素。为此,文章基于季节调整预测模型,找寻航空客运量数据中存在的一般规律,对2023年3月—2025年12月的航空客运量数据进行预测,并给出合理化建议。首先,利用季节调整模型对2019年1—12月的客运量序列进行仿真预测。其次,验证模型有效性,并得到仿真预测的2023年3月—2025年12月航空客运量。最后,考虑情感因素对航空客运量的影响,拟合遗忘曲线,并以此对预测结果进行修正,得到最终预测结果。利用该预测模型找出航空客运量数据的规律,能够为交通运输管理提供更科学可靠的决策支持。

Inf luenced by major emergencies,the civil aviation industry has been greatly impacted,resulting in enhancing the complexity of the regularity of air passenger volume data.Seasonal factors in the monthly air passenger volume series will affect the accuracy of air passenger volume forecast.With the gradual recovery of residents,lives,emotional factors have become the key factors affecting residents,travel.Therefore,based on the seasonal adjustment prediction model,this paper seeks the general rules in the air passenger volume data,forecasts the air passenger volume data from March 2023 to December 2025,and gives reasonable suggestions.First,the seasonal adjustment model is used to simulate and forecast the passenger volume series between January and December 2019.Secondly,the paper verifies the effectiveness of the model and obtains the simulated predicted air passenger volume from March 2023 to December 2025.Finally,considering the impact of emotional factors on air passenger volume,a forgetting curve is fitted,and the prediction results are corrected accordingly to obtain the final prediction result.Using this prediction model to identify the patterns of air passenger volume data can provide more scientific and reliable decision support for transportation management.