产业结构调整对城市PM_(2.5)的影响机理

Influencing Mechanism of Industrial Structure Adjustment on Urban PM_(2.5)in China

随着中国经济进入高质量发展阶段,产业结构会深度调整,这将对空气质量产生重要影响。文章以2001—2020年中国285个地级及以上城市面板数据,探究PM_(2.5)时空演变规律,运用空间杜宾模型实证分析产业结构调整对PM_(2.5)的影响,并对产业集聚的调节作用和具体作用机制进行检验。结果表明:①中国城市PM_(2.5)整体呈现先上升后下降的倒“U”型特征,京津冀、中原、山东半岛等区域内城市始终是高值地区。②中国城市PM_(2.5)具有明显的空间相关性,呈现“先扩张后收缩”特征。③第二产业占比提高与城市PM_(2.5)存在显著正相关关系,第三产业占比与城市PM_(2.5)存在显著负相关关系。④不管是制造业集聚还是生产性服务业集聚,其在产业结构调整影响城市PM_(2.5)发挥了正向调节作用,且后者正向作用更大。⑤产业结构调整可以通过减少污染物排放降低城市PM_(2.5)浓度。

As China's economy enters the high-quality development stage,the industrial structure will also be deeply adjusted,which will have a significant impact on the air quality.Based on panel data of 285 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2001 to 2020,this paper explores the temporal and spatial evolution of PM_(2.5),empirically analyzes the impact of industrial structure adjustment on PM_(2.5)using spatial Durbin model,and tests the regulatory role and specific mechanism of industrial agglomeration.The results show that:1)The overall PM_(2.5)of Chinese cities presents an inverted U-shaped characteristic,which is rising first and then falling.Cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Central Plains,Shandong Peninsula and other regions are always high value regions.2)China's urban PM_(2.5)has obvious spatial correlation,showing the characteristics of"expansion before contraction".3)The increase in the proportion of the secondary industry has a significant positive correlation with urban PM_(2.5),while the proportion of the tertiary industry has a significant negative correlation with urban PM_(2.5).4)Whether it is manufacturing industry agglomeration or producer service industry agglomeration,it plays a positive role in adjusting the industrial structure to affect urban PM_(2.5)and the latter has a greater positive role.5)Industrial structure adjustment can reduce urban PM_(2.5)concentration by reducing pollutant emissions.