基于APCS-MLR和PMF模型的海州湾沉积物重金属污染特征与来源研究

Characteristics and source analysis of heavy metals pollution from core sediments in Haizhou bay based on APCS-MLR and PMF model

沿海地区经济的快速发展导致污染物排放量不断增大,对近岸海域生态环境造成一定威胁。其中,重金属是主要污染物之一。本文采用富集系数法与潜在生态风险指数法对海州湾沉积物柱状样中重金属元素(V、Cr、Mn、Ni、Zn、Sr和Pb)进行污染生态风险评估,运用多变量分析方法(相关性分析和因子分析)、APCS-MLR和PMF模型定性、定量解析重金属污染来源。结果表明:海州湾沉积物柱状样中重金属含量普遍高于背景值,且其在1980年以前变化不大,1980年以后呈上升趋势,这与1980年以后连云港的工业经济迅速发展有关。海州湾沉积物柱状样中重金属属于轻度-中度富集水平和低潜在生态风险水平。多变量分析结果表明,V、Mn、Zn和Sr主要来源于农业源与自然源的混合源;Cr和Ni主要由工业源控制;Pb以交通源为主。APCS-MLR与PMF模型分析结果与多变量分析结果基本一致。结果表明,APCS-MLR模型和PMF模型中,农业源与自然源的混合源、工业源、交通源对重金属污染的贡献率分别是39.81%和45.75%、48.49%和35.08%、11.67%和19.17%,该研究结果可以为海州湾重金属污染防治提供重要依据。

The rapid development in coastal areas leads to the increasing discharge of pollutants,which have posed certain threats to the coastal ecological environment.Among them,heavy metal is one of the main pollutants.In this paper,the enrichment coefficient method and potential ecological risk index method were used to assess the pollution ecological risk of heavy metal elements(V,Cr,Mn,Ni,Zn,Sr,Pb)from sediment cores in Haizhou bay.Meanwhile,multivariate analysis methods(correlation analysis and factor analysis),the absolute factor analysis-multiple linear regression(APCS-MLR)receptor model and positive matrix factorization(PMF)analysis were employed to qualitatively and quantitatively reveal the sources of heavy metals.The results showed that the concentration of heavy metals from sediment cores in Haizhou bay was generally higher than the background value,and it has little change before 1980,but has an upward trend after 1980,which was related to the rapid development of industrial economy in Lianyungang after 1980.The heavy metals from sediment cores in Haizhou bay belong to mild to moderate enrichment level and mild potential ecological risk level.Multivariate analysis showed that V,Mn,Zn and Sr mainly came from the mixture of agricultural pollution and natural sources.Cr and Ni were mainly controlled by industrial sources.Pb was dominated by traffic sources.The analysis results of APCS-MLR and PMF models were basically consistent with the multivariate analysis results.APCS-MLR and PMF model results showed that the contribution rates of agricultural and natural sources,industrial sources and traffic sources to heavy metal pollution were 39.81%and 45.75%,48.49%and 35.08%,11.67%and 19.17%,respectively.The results can provide an important basis for the prevention and control of heavy metal pollution in Haizhou bay.