基于PLUS-InVEST模型的京津冀碳储量变化及预测

Spatio-temporal variation and prediction of carbon storage in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region-A PLUS-InVEST model approach

研究京津冀地区土地利用变化对碳储量时空变化的影响,可为该区域碳达峰背景下土地的合理利用与规划提供科学依据。基于京津冀2000-2020年土地利用数据,运用PLUS-InVEST模型探讨京津冀过去2000-2020年及未来2030年3种情景(自然变化、耕地保护、生态保护)下碳储量的变化。结果表明:2000-2020年京津冀耕地、草地和未利用土地呈减少趋势,建设用地、林地和水域呈增加趋势,20a碳储量减少56.95Tg,耕地和林地是主要的碳储存地,建设用地侵占耕地是碳储量减少的主要原因;2030年自然变化情景、耕地保护情景、生态保护情景下碳储量较2020年分别减少7.45Tg,增加4.02Tg和24.39Tg。生态保护情景更有助于提高京津冀碳储量,对该区域土地利用规划管理和增汇政策的制定提供决策参考意义。

Studying the impact of land use change on the temporal and spatial change of carbon storage in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region provide a scientific basis for the rational use and planning of land under the background of carbon peaking in the region.Based on the land use data of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2020,the PLUS-InVEST model was used to explore the changes of carbon storage in the past 2000-2020 and the future 2030(under three scenario:natural change,arable land protection and ecological protection).The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,cultivated land,grassland and unused land in this region showed a decreasing trend,construction land,forest land and water area showed an increasing trend,and the carbon storage decreased by 56.95Tg during the 20 years.Farmland and forest land are the main carbon storage areas,and the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage was the encroachment of farmland by constructionland.Compared to 2020,carbon storage under the natural change scenario,farmland protection scenario,and ecological protection scenario in 2030 will decrease by 7.45Tg,increase by 4.02Tg,and 24.39Tg,respectively.The ecological protection scenario is more conducive to improving carbon storage in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The study provides decision-making reference for land use planning and management and the formulation of policies to increase carbon stocks.