“一村一品”示范政策促进了农民增收吗?——基于多时点DID的实证检验

Was Farmers'Income Increased by the""One Village,One Product"Demonstration Policy?An Empirical Test Based on Time-varying DID Model

“一村一品”示范政策已成为地方政府推进产业发展和共同富裕的重要抓手。“一村一品”能有效带动所在村镇农民收入增长,但是否对周边农民增收具有溢出效应尚未明确。本文基于2009-2020年广东省县级面板数据,视全国“一村一品”示范村镇认定为一项“准自然实验”,运用多时点DID模型评估“一村一品”政策对县域农民的增收效应。研究发现:总体来看,“一村一品”认定对县域农民增收的溢出效应不显著,但对农业大县和非农业大县农民收入具有异质性影响,对农业大县农民收入具有显著的提升作用,且增收效应存在一定长期性,对非农业大县农民收入没有显著影响。机制检验表明,“一村一品”认定能显著促进县域农业发展,但未能有效带动农民增收;从农业大县样本看,“一村一品”能通过推进县域农业产业规模扩张和质量提升促进农民增收。建议认真总结“一村一品”示范政策带动周边农户增收的一般规律和典型案例,不断扩大政策影响范围,积极探索该政策通过农业发展带动农民增收的多维路径。

The demonstration policy of"One Village,One Product"(OVOP)has become an important tool for local governments to promote industrial development and common prosperity.The development of OVOP can effectively drive the income growth of farmers in villages and towns,but the spillover effect on the income increase of surrounding farmers is not yet clear.Based on panel data of the national county of Guangdong Province from 2009 to 2020,this paper identified the national OVOP demonstration villages and towns as a"quasi-natural experiment",and evalua-ted the income increase effect of the OVOP policy on county farmers by using the time-varying DID model.It is found that:in general,the spillover effect of OVOP recognition on the income of coun-ty farmers is not significant,but it has a heterogeneous impact on the income of farmers in high-ag-ricultural counties and low-agricultural counties,and has a significant role in improving the income of farmers in large agricultural counties.Moreover,the income increase effect is long-term,and has no significant impact on the income of farmers in low-agricultural counties.The mechanism test results show that,the recognition of OVOP can significantly promote the development of agricul-ture,but it has not effectively led to the increase of farmers'income.From the sample of high-ag-ricultural counties,OVOP can promote the increase of farmers'income by promoting the expan-sion of county agricultural industry scale and quality improvement.It is suggested to summarize the general laws and typical cases of OVOP demonstration policy driving the income increase of sur-rounding farmers,expand the influence scope of the policy,and actively explore the multi-dimen-sional path of the policy to drive farmers'income increase through agricultural development.