大学扩招政策的边际作用递减?——基于1999年高校扩招政策的异质性分析

Does the Marginal Effect of University Enrollment Expansion Policy Decrease?-Heterogeneity Analysis Based on the China's Higher Education Expansion in 1999

1999年的高校扩招对中国人力资本积累具有深远影响。本文基于不完全信息下的个体决策模型,从高等教育的异质回报率的角度阐述了扩招政策对人力资本积累的边际作用递减规律。实证研究发现:(1)在平均意义上,大学扩招对提高社会人力资本积累具有正向影响;(2)高等教育回报率因人而异,读大学对部分个体人力资本积累的贡献不如相应年限的工作;(3)由于个体异质性的存在,扩招政策的边际作用随着录取率的提高而下降。

The Higher Education Expansion in 1999 has an important impact on the human capital accumulation of China.Based on the individual decision-making model under incomplete information,we expound the law of diminishing marginal effect of expansion policy on human capital accumulation based on heterogeneous return of higher education.The empirical study reveals that:(1)on average,the expansion policy has a positive impact on human capital;(2)the higher education returns varies from person to person,and may be negative for some individuals;(3)the marginal effect of expansion policy decreases with the increase of admission rate.