东道国恐怖活动、中国对外直接投资及其区位偏好转移

Terrorism,China's OFDI and Its Transfer

本文探究了东道国恐怖活动对中国OFDI的影响及其空间溢出效应。本文发现,第一,东道国恐怖活动对中国在该国的OFDI有“挤出效应”,但是对中国在该国周边国家的OFDI却有“挤入效应”。第二,恐怖活动仅能使低转移成本的OFDI发生区位偏好转移,并不会影响高转移成本的OFDI,即中国OFDI区位转移存在“选择偏好”。第三,大规模的严重恐怖活动使中国OFDI的区位偏好发生转移,但是小范围的恐怖活动则影响有限。第四,恐怖活动不仅使中国OFDI向地理距离较近的地区转移,也使其向制度距离较近的地区转移,即中国OFDI区位转移存在“流向偏好”。本文的研究发现为中国OFDI的战略布局提供了现实参考。

This paper delves into the impact of terrorism in host countries on China's outward foreign direct investment(OFDI),and its spatial spillover effects.We find that,firstly,terrorist activities in host countries result in a"crowding-out effect"on China's OFDI in those countries,yet they lead to a"crowding-in effect"on China's OFDI in neighboring countries.Secondly,terrorism only induces location 6 preference shifts for low transfer-cost OFDI,instead of affecting high transfer-cost OFDI;thus,China's OFDI location shift exhibits"selection preference."Thirdly,large-scale and severe terrorist activities shift the location preference of China's OFDI,but small-scale terrorist activities do not.Fourthly,terrorism not only drives China's OFDI towards proximate geographic regions but also tends to steer it towards areas with closer institutional proximity,indicating there is a"flow preference"for the location shift of China's OFDI.This paper provides practical insights for the strategic layout of China's OFDI.