数字经济对税收收入结构影响研究:来自地级市的证据

Study on the Impact of Digital Economy on Tax Revenue Structure:Based on Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China

近年来,中央政府大力开展国家信息化、数字化建设,逐步推进“互联网+”工作部署与政策实施以期推动全国经济实现从高速发展至高质量发展的转型,同时,共同富裕的推进也对地方政府税收收入结构提出了新要求。本文以2015年政府工作报告中首次出现的“互联网+”作为准自然实验的外生冲击,同时依托于地级市层面数字经济发展指数,构建双重差分模型以考察数字经济发展对地方政府税收收入结构的影响。实证结果表明,数字经济发展显著提升了当地直接税占税收总收入的比重,这有助于赋能实现共同富裕。进一步异质性研究发现,数字经济发展对企业所得税和个人所得税两大直接税占税收总收入的比重均具显著提升作用,并在市场化程度高地区作用更明显。本文丰富了数字经济发展与地方税收结构领域的文献,同时为处理好数字经济发展以实现经济高质量发展和优化税收收入结构、提高直接税收入比重以实现共同富裕两大战略目标间的政策协同提供了实证证据。

In recent years,in order to promote the pattern transformation of the economy from high-guality,the Chinese central government has vigorously carried national informatization and digitization construction and gradually facilitated the deployment and implementation of“Internet+”policy.to promote the transformation of the national economy from high-speed development to high-quality development.Meanwhile,the realization of common prosperity has also put new demands on the tax revenue structure of local governments.Based on the exogenous impact of“Internet+”as a quasi-natural experiment for the first time in the 2015 Government Work Report and the digital economy development index at the prefecture-level city,this paper constructs a difference-in-difference model to examine the impact of digital economy development on the tax revenue structure of local governments.Empirical results have revealed that the development of the digital economy has significantly increased the proportion of direct local tax revenue in total tax revenue,which can further empower common prosperity.Further heterogeneity studies have shown that the development of the digital economy has a significant effect on the share of corporate and individual income taxes,with the improvement being more pronounced in areas with a high degree of marketization.This study enriches the literature in the field of digital economy development and local tax structure,and provides empirical evidence of the policy synergy between the two strategic goals of digital economy development to achieve high-quality economic development pattem and optimize tax revenue structure,as well as increase the proportion of direct tax revenue.It provides an empirical study for the policy coordination the two strategies of common prosperity.