京津冀跨域生态环境协同治理隐性障碍及破解路径:基于ANP-SD模型的动态仿真

Implicit Barriers and Solution to Collaborative Cross-regional Ecological Environment Governance in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei:Dynamic Simulation Based on ANP-SD Model

京津冀地区的生态环境协同治理内部结构复杂、外部联系多元,仍存在协同机制的低效运行、效果欠佳等治理低效的困境。明晰该地区生态环境协同治理困境隐性层面的形成根源及破解思路刻不容缓。首先,系统梳理了18个京津冀生态环境协同治理隐性障碍,构建了ANPSD动态仿真模型对协同治理效果的演化规律进行动态仿真。结果发现:京津冀发展的差距较大、协同机构权威性不足、政策评估体系虚化、横向沟通不协调是影响显著的四个关键隐性障碍,动态地影响着治理效果,呈明显的负相关特征。其次,基于动态仿真的结果提出了行之有效的破解路径和政策建议。动态模型的构建丰富了生态环境协同治理的理论和方法体系,并为京津冀及其他城市群的生态环境协同治理政策制定提供有益的决策参考。

The internal structure of collaborative ecological environment governance in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is complex and the external connections are diversified.The collaboration mechanism has inefficient operation and tends to be less effective.Therefore,it is urgent to trace down the causes and highlight the solutions in this regard.This paper systematically sorts out 18 implicit barriers in the collaborative ecological environment governance and constructs an ANP-SD dynamic simulation model to dynamically simulate the evolution law of the governance effect.The results show that discrepant development,insufficient authority of collaborative institutions,hollow policy evaluation system and the uncoordinated horizontal communication are the four key implicit barriers that dynamically affect the governance effect and show obvious negative correlation characteristics.Finally,an effective crack path is proposed.This study not only enriches the theory and method of collaborative ecological environment governance,but also provides reference for the policymaking of collaborative ecological environment governance in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and other urban agglomerations.