乡村振兴与高质量发展耦合度的区域非均衡性及驱动因素识别

Regional Imbalance and Identification of Driving Factors in the Coupling Degree of Rural Revitalization and High-Quality Development

【目的】研究我国乡村振兴与高质量发展耦合协调水平的区域非均衡性特征及其影响因素,为加快推动农业农村高质量发展提供科学依据。【方法】在运用熵权TOPSIS、灰色关联度和耦合度模型测算2010—2019年中国30个省(区、市)乡村振兴与高质量发展耦合度的基础上,采用标准差椭圆、空间自相关、σ收敛法、Dagum基尼系数法考察耦合度区域非均衡性的时空动态演变特征,并进一步利用空间杜宾和OLS模型对全国及四大地区耦合度的驱动因素进行识别。【结果】(1)全国及四大地区的耦合度都呈现逐年递增趋势,且存在“东高西低”的空间分布特征,协调类型存在从初级协调向中级协调跃升态势;耦合度的椭圆重心始终位于河南省,说明其区位分布特征及动态演化轨迹相对稳定;耦合度存在显著的空间正相关性,但相关性程度较弱;除西部的耦合度存在小幅度扩散趋势外,其余地区均呈现收敛态势;空间差异性主要来源于地区间,地区内次之,超变密度最小。(2)全国视角下人口密度、经济发展、消费水平和金融发展都会对耦合发展水平产生显著的正向促进作用,而人力资本因素却存在负向抑制作用,邻近地区的人口密度、经济发展、金融发展和科技发展也会产生空间溢出效应,以及周边地区耦合度的提升也会对本地区产生积极的辐射作用;地区视角下各类驱动因素表现出“因地而异”的特点。【结论】坚持“全国统筹,因地制宜”的原则,既要强化政府宏观经济调控的主导作用,又需发挥各地区驱动因素的促进作用,还要优化耦合度的空间布局结构,增强区域间的联系性,促进区域协调发展,进而加快实现中国式农业农村现代化发展。

【Objective】The regional heterogeneous characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling and coordination level of rural revitalization and high-quality development in China are studied,and scientific basis is provided for accelerating the high-quality development of agriculture and rural areas.【Method】Based on the entropy weight TOPSIS,grey correlation degree and coupling degree model to calculate the coupling degree of rural revitalization and high-quality development in 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2010 to 2019,the standard deviation ellipse,spatial autocorrelation,σconvergence method and Dagum Gini coefficient methods were used to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics of the regional heterogeneity of the coupling degree,and it also used the spatial Dubin and OLS models to further identify the driving factors of the coupling degree in China and four major regions.【Result】①The coupling degree of the whole country and the four major regions showed an increasing trend year by year,and there were spatial distribution characteristics of"high in the east and low in the west",and the coordination type jumped from primary coordination to intermediate coordination.The elliptical center of gravity of the coupling degree is always located in Henan Province,indicating that its location distribution characteristics and dynamic evolution trajectory are relatively stable.There is a significant spatial positive correlation in coupling,but the correlation degree is weak.Except for the small diffusion trend in the coupling degree in the western region,the rest of the regions showed a convergence trend.The spatial difference mainly comes from between regions,followed by regions,and the supervariable density is the smallest.②From a national perspective,population density,economic development,consumption level and financial development will have a significant positive effect on the coupling development level,while human capital factors have a negative inhibitory effect,and the population density,economic development,financial development and technological development of neighboring areas will also have spatial spillover effects,and the improvement of the coupling degree of surrounding areas will also have a positive radiation effect on the region.From a regional perspective,the drivers exhibit"region-specific"characteristics.【Conclusion】Adhering to the principle of"national overall planning and adapting measures to local conditions",this study found sthat it is necessary to strengthen the leading role of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control,and also give play to the role of the driving factors of each region,and also optimize the spatial layout structure of the coupling degree,enhance the linkage between regions,promote coordinated regional development,and then accelerate the modernization of Chinese-style agriculture and rural areas.