长江经济带水-能源-粮食产业关联与波及效应

WEF industry correlation and ripple effect in Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于2002—2017年长江经济带各省(直辖市)水、能源、粮食相关数据,将3种资源与产业相关联,通过投入产出法描述3种产业部门在研究期内生产中原材料投入来源和产出品使用方向,构建长江经济带水-能源-粮食(Water-Energy-Food,WEF)产业投入产出模型,并结合结构分析法,对产业间关联效应及对地区经济的波及影响进行研究。结果表明:水生产与供应业对WEF产业前、后向关联度均波动下降,对地区经济的影响力系数降低至1以下,感应度系数增长0.5,增幅高达44.2%,拉动作用趋于弱化而感应水平显著提升,其需求结构向中间产品型基础产业转变。能源产业对WEF产业有较强的推动和制约作用,容易受经济波动影响,作为具有低附加值、高带动性特征的中间产品型产业,2007年后其影响力系数稳定在1.2,感应度系数减少10%,缺乏持续发展后劲。粮食产业与自身关联紧密,与其他产业的直接联系较弱,2017年其中间需求率和投入率仅有0.5544和0.3862,对地区经济的推动和拉动作用均不突出,属于带有迟钝关联特性的中间产品型基础产业,总体发展状态相对稳定。从经济角度对不同发展阶段WEF产业的结构特征和关联、波及效应的演变情况进行分析,为支撑和保障长江经济带高质量发展以及WEF产业可持续发展提供决策参考。

Water,energy and food are the most essential basic resources to promote social progress and there is a compact and complex nexus between them.With the continuous growth of global population,the contradiction between supply and demand of water,energy and food is becoming increasingly prominent,which makes the development of fundamental industries bound up with these three resources become an overall and strategic issue related to the economic and social development of the country as well as the improvement of people's living standards.Yangtze River Economic Belt is a notable inland river economic belt with the longest depth and the broadest coverage in China and plays a significant role as an engine in China's economic development.Currently,there are many challenges ahead to the development of water,energy and food industries in this area,hence it is particularly important to study the relationship among the three industries and their impact on social and economic development in order to promote industrial transformation and upgrade industrial integration and coordinated development of the area.The water-energy-food industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was focused on based on the input-output data of the economic belt in 2002,2007,2012 and 2017.On this basis,three types of resources were linked with industries and the water-energy-food input-output model of the Yangtze River Economic Belt was constructed to describe the input sources and output usage directions of raw materials produced,and the input-output coefficient,industrial system structure characteristics,correlation between industries and their change trends of three industries in different development stages were analyzed and the evolution of the correlation and ripple effect of water-energy�food industries were further analyzed.The results showed that there were obvious differences between three industries from the perspective of correlation and ripple effect:the water product and supply industry was increasingly related to itself in both forward and backward direction,and was most closely related to the energy industry.The forward correlation to the whole water-energy-food industrial system increased,while the backward correlation weakened,and the demand structure tended to weaken the driving effect on the regional economy,but in recent years,its level of sensitivity to social economy has significantly improved.The energy industry played a strong role in promoting and restricting the water�energy-food industrial system and was vulnerable to the impact of economic fluctuations and consumption from other industries.When the economy develops at a high speed,the energy industry will face greater pressure from social demand.The energy industry was also a correlation-sensitive industry.Meanwhile,it was an intermediate product industry with low added value and high driving force,but lacked the momentum for sustainable development.The food industry had a weak direct connection with other industries.The overall development state was relatively stable,and it did not exert prominent driving force and pulling force on the water-energy-food industrial system and the whole social economy.It belonged to the intermediate product basic industry with slack correlation,the development status of food industry was independent and steady.Based on the above analysis,relevant policies need to be formulated to strengthen related work such as water conservation in energy and food industry,and expand the upstream industry output and downstream industry transaction scale of the water production and supply industry to improve their investment rate.For the energy industry,it is necessary to focus on internal optimization and independent innovation.The food industry needs to focus on cultivating its internal development momentum,increasing capital and technological inputs,and reducing production cost inputs.At the same time,Yangtze River Economic Belt needs to comprehensively consider the situation of three industries,promote the integrated development of the water-energy-food industry,focus on the integration of upstream and downstream resources in the industrial chain,and accelerate the integration of industries.