人口负增长的世界性现象与中国式应对

Negative Population Growth:A Worldwide Phenomenon and Chinese-style Response

人口总量由增转减是中国百年未有之人口大变局,人口负增长将深刻改变中国新发展格局与社会主义现代化国家新征程的基本国情。作为21世纪世界性现象的人口负增长,在中国语境下呈现“进入早、发展快、程度深、回弹慢”等明显特点,将引发人口经济社会重大风险的加速积聚与释放,国家决策窗口期随之高度压缩。人口负增长的中国式应对,既蕴含视角转换,以化解“马尔萨斯制约”探索内在建构型人口负增长的多重影响效应,发展世界人口负增长的中国话语体系;也强调前瞻思路,包括数量上预警累积程度、结构上判断综合效应、宏观上把握机遇挑战、微观上细化生命历程、时间上测算发展阶段、空间上分解回旋余地等;还秉持积极理念,构筑战略定位、制度安排、核心任务、行动策略和创新治理的整体框架,为世界应对人口负增长提供中国方案。

The change from increasing to decreasing population is an unprecedented demographic change in China.Negative population growth will profoundly change the basic national conditions of China’s new development pattern and the new path of modernization.As a worldwide phenomenon in the 21st century,negative population growth in the context of China presents obvious characteristics such as“early entry,rapid development,deep degree and slow rebound”,which will lead to the accelerated accumulation and release of major risks of population economy and society,and the national decision-making window period will be highly compressed.The Chinese-style response to the negative population growth not only contains a change of perspective,also emphasizes forward-looking thinking,and adopts a positive approach to build an overall framework for strategic positioning,institutional arrangements,core tasks,action strategies and innovative governance,so as to provide a Chinese solution for the world to cope with negative population growth.