基于GM(1,1)-星野法的路基沉降预测分析

Predictive Analysis of Roadbed Settlement Based on GM(1,1)-Hushino Method

结合沪陕高速合肥至大顾店段改扩建工程路基变形监控的实测数据,分别对星野法预测模型、灰色理论的GM(1,1)预测模型和GM(1,1)-星野法预测模型进行对比分析,得出GM(1,1)-星野法预测模型对于高速公路路基沉降预测具有预测精度高、拟合性好等特点,为高速公路施工质量控制提供参考。

In combination with the measured data of roadbed deformation monitoring for the reconstruction and expansion project of the Hefei-Dagudian section of Shanghai-Shaanxi expressway,the comparative analysis is made respectively on the Hushino method prediction model,GM(1,1)prediction model based on grey theory,and GM(1,1)-Hushino method prediction model,so as to obtain that the GM(1,1)-Hushino method prediction modelhas high prediction accuracy and good fitting ability for predicting the roadbed settlement of expressway and provide reference for the quality control of highway construction.