数字经济发展的城乡收入差距变动之谜——基于中国经验的再审视

The Change Puzzle of Urban-rural Income Gap in the Development of the Digital Economy——A Re-examination Based on China’s Experience

推动数字经济持续健康发展是新发展阶段我国实现经济高质量发展、城乡现代化转型的重要抓手。但数字经济发展往往是一把“双刃剑”,会对城乡收入差距变动产生明显的异质性后果,形成所谓的数字经济发展城乡收入差距变动之谜。本文在系统测度中国2011~2020年省级数字经济发展指数的基础上,运用面板可行广义最小二乘(FGLS)估计、面板拓展回归模型(ERM)和面板门限回归(PTR)模型重新考察了数字经济发展与城乡收入差距变动之间的关系。结果显示:中国数字经济发展与城乡收入差距变动之间表现为典型的U形关系,且U形关系的转变临界点由三个门限值共同决定。中国省级城乡收入差距变动不仅受到数字经济发展之影响,还存在显著的“棘轮效应”。分区域来看,东西部地区数字经济发展与城乡收入差距变动之间的关系呈现近似的倒U形结构且正处于结构的右半段,中部地区数字经济发展与城乡收入差距变动之间表现为明显的U形关系且仍处于发展的左半段。同时进一步研究发现,城乡劳动生产率分化和产业结构非农化可以在数字经济发展进程中对城乡收入差距变动起到显著的中介和调节作用,经过稳健性检验结论仍然成立。本文研究可为各级政府重新认识数字经济发展与城乡收入差距变动之关系,进一步调整完善数字经济产业政策和再分配制度提供实证支持。

Promoting the sustainable and healthy development of digital economy is an important way for China in the new development stage,to achieve the high-quality development and the modernization of urban and rural areas.However,the development of digital economy is often a double-edged sword,which has obvious heterogeneous influences on the change of urban-rural income gap,forming the so-called the Change Puzzle of Urban-rural Income Gap in the Development of Digital Economy.Based on the systematic measurement of China’s provincial digital economy development index,this paper re-examines the relationship between digital economy development and urban-rural income gap change using panel feasible generalized least squares(FGLS),panel extended regression model(ERM),and panel threshold regression(PTR)model.The results shows that the relationship between China’s digital economy and the urban-rural income gap is typically“U-shaped”,and the threshold of the U-shaped relationship is jointly determined by three threshold values.The change in the provincial urbanrural income gap in China is not only affected by the development of digital economy,but also has a significant“ratchet effect”.By region,the digital economy development and the urbanrural income gap change in the east and west show a similar“inverted U-shaped”structure and are in the right half of the structure,while the digital economy development and the urban-rural income gap change in the central region show an obvious“U-shaped relationship”and are still in the the left half of the development.Further study finds that,urban-rural labor productivity differentiation and industrial structure de-agriculturalization can play significant mediating and moderating roles in the change of urban-rural income gap in the development of digital economy,and the findings still hold after robustness testing.This study can provide empirical support for governments at all levels to re-conceptualize the relationship between digital economy development and urban-rural income gap change,and further adjust and improve the in-dustrial policy and redistribution system of digital economy.