新疆绿洲棉花生产布局变化特征及其驱动因素研究

Study on the Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Cotton Production Layout in Xinjiang Oasis

新疆绿洲棉花种植业发展迅速,已成为我国最大的产棉基地,研究新疆绿洲棉花生产布局变化特征对调整和优化农业结构布局、农民增收、促进棉花生产的可持续发展具有重要意义。选定新疆绿洲棉区为研究对象,基于1990—2020年的新疆棉花生产数据,以新疆四大绿洲棉区(即塔里木盆地绿洲棉区、西北沿边绿洲棉区、将吐鲁番—哈密盆地绿洲棉区以及和田绿洲棉区)及主要产棉市县为研究基本单元,运用时间序列分析与空间分析相结合,对绿洲棉区的棉花种植面积、总产量、单位产量趋势数据进行剖析,分析各影响因素对新疆绿洲棉花种植业地理集聚的影响程度,揭示新疆四大绿洲棉区棉花种植业发展的主要驱动因素。结果表明:1991年以来,新疆绿洲棉花种植面积不断扩大,且表现出明显的阶段性和波动性,四大棉区变化特点各异,其中以塔里木盆地绿洲棉区和西北沿边绿洲棉区面积增长明显,且塔里木盆地绿洲棉区在新疆棉花生产中起主导作用;生产驱动因素分析表明,自然条件、生产科技和政策引导是非常重要的驱动因素。由此可见,30年来新疆绿洲棉花种植面积先减后增,生产集中程度不断增大,优势产区趋于稳定,单位产量逐步提升;生产布局呈现新疆棉花生产重心呈现出由西向东北方向变迁的特点,同时自然条件、生产科技水平和政策因素也促进了棉花生产向塔里木盆地绿洲棉区转移。

The cotton planting industry in Xinjiang oasis developed rapidly,and Xinjiang became the largest cotton production base in China.Studying the characteristics of the cotton production layout change in Xinjiang oasis was of great significance for adjusting and optimizing the agricultural structure layout,increasing farmers’income,and promoting the sustainable development of cotton production.This paper selected Xinjiang oasis cotton region as the research object.Based on the cotton production data of Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020,the four major oasis cotton regions in Xinjiang(namely,Tarim Basin oasis cotton region,northwest border oasis cotton region,Turpan Hami Basin oasis cotton region and Hotan oasis cotton region)and major cotton producing counties and cities as the basic research unit,the time series analysis and spatial analysis were combined to analyze the trend data of cotton planting area,total output and unit output,and analyze the impact of various factors on the geographical agglomeration of Xinjiang oasis cotton planting industry.The main driving factors for the development of cotton planting industry in Xinjiang oasis were revealed.The results showed that since 1991,the cotton planting area in Xinjiang’s oases were expanding,and showed obvious stages and fluctuations.The four major cotton regions had different characteristics of change.The oasis cotton region in the Tarim Basin and the oasis cotton region along the northwest changed significantly,and the oasis cotton region in the Tarim Basin played a leading role;The analysis of production drivers showed that natural conditions,agricultural science and technology and policy guidance were very important driving factors.This showed that,over the past 30 years,the sown area of cotton in Xinjiang’s oasis decreased first and then increased,the degree of production concentration was increasing,the dominant production areas tended to be stable,and the unit yield has gradually increased;The production layout showed that the cotton production center in Xinjiang’s oasis changed from north to south.Meanwhile,natural conditions,scientific and technological level and policy factors also promoted the transfer of cotton production to the oasis cotton region in the Tarim Basin.