江苏县域农村屋顶分布式光伏发电系统建设自然社会影响因素实证分析

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF NATURAL AND SOCIAL FACTORS AFFECTING NEWLY INSTALLED CAPACITY OF RURAL ROOFTOP DISTRIBUTED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM AT COUNTY LEVEL IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

农村屋顶分布式光伏正在快速发展中,但其发展的影响因素及影响程度并无系统性的梳理分析。针对此问题,通过收集江苏省64个县级区域共39期月度农村屋顶分布式光伏新增装机量、自然资源和社会生活等多方面的数据,建立基于县级面板数据的农村屋顶分布式光伏新增装机量的实证模型,在全省总体层面和苏南、苏中、苏北分地区对比的多维度上进行评估。研究结果表明,新增装机量与太阳能资源等自然禀赋相关性不大,发展处于自发性、无序性状态,缺乏指导和政策规划;新增装机量与居民收入等社会因素关系密切,安装农村屋顶分布式光伏的居民主要是低收入群体,覆盖面还不够广。清洁能源使用与绿色低碳参与意识还未深入人心,缺乏相应宣传。

Rural rooftop distributed photovoltaic system is developing rapidly.However,there is no systematic analysis on the influencing factors and degree of its development.Aiming to solve this problem,this research establishes empirical models on panel data of 64 county-level regions for 39 months,and then evaluates on the whole level of Jiangsu province and regional comparison of southern,middle and northern part of Jiangsu.The results show that there is little correlation between newly installed capacity of rural rooftop distributed PV and natural endowments such as solar energy resources.The development is spontaneous and disorderly,lacking guidance and policy planning.Newly installed capacity is closely related to social factors such as residents’income.Residents who install rural rooftop distributed PV are mainly low-income groups.The coverage rate of rural rooftop distributed PV need to be increased.The residents’awareness of participation in clean energy usage and green and low-carbon concept is not deep enough.The government should enhance the publicity of rural rooftop distributed PV。